Whalesbook
Duniya bhar mein weather ka bhandha phootne wala hai!
Bhai log, ek bahut badi El Niño aane wali hai. Weather experts bol rahe hain ki May se July ke beech iske banne ke 82% chances hain. Aur sabse dar wali baat yeh hai ki yeh 1877 ke El Niño jaisa bhayankar ho sakta hai, jiski wajah se duniya bhar mein mausam ne tabahi machayi thi aur bahut log maare gaye the. Current calculations bol rahe hain ki yeh agle winter tak reh sakta hai, matlab 96% chances hain. Aur iski taaqat aur bhi zyada hogi kyunki hamari dharti pehle se hi garam ho rahi hai. 2024 record pe sabse garam saal raha hai. Toh bhai, yeh sab milkar mausam ko aur bhi zyada extreme bana sakte hain.
El Niño aakhir hai kya aur kab kab aayi hai?
El Niño basically El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle ka garam wala phase hai. Yeh tab shuru hota hai jab Pacific ke hawa ka zor kam ho jata hai. Isse Pacific Ocean ki satah ka temperature badh jata hai. Iska asar yeh hota hai ki duniya bhar mein mausam badal jata hai. Kuch jagah zyada baarish hoti hai, jaise Pacific regions mein, aur kahin kam, jaise Australia mein.
History mein 1982-83 aur 1997-98 mein jab El Niño aaya tha, toh duniya bhar mein mausam mein bade changes aaye the.
Economy aur logon par kya padega?
2026 mein aane wale El Niño ko 1876-78 ke bade El Niño se compare kiya ja raha hai. Us time lagbhag 5 Crore log famine se maare gaye the. Woh time ka kaand sirf El Niño ki wajah se nahi tha, balki Indian Ocean Dipole aur North Atlantic mein badhti garmi bhi iske peeche thi.
Abhi 19th century ke muqable hamare paas forecasting aur monitoring ke liye better tools hain, jisse hum agriculture, khane ki kami aur health ko lekar pehle se taiyar ho sakte hain. Lekin, itni badi disaster mein resources ka issue ho sakta hai. Abhi humari duniya ka average temperature pehle se 1.4°C upar hai, jiska matlab hai ki El Niño ke normal impacts bhi aur zyada bhayankar ho sakte hain.
Kaun se sectors sabse zyada danger mein hain?
Abhi yeh toh nahi pata ki kon si specific companies ko nuksan hoga, par yeh toh pakka hai ki barish ka achanak badhna aur kahin-kahin pe khatarnak drought ki wajah se kai sectors par asar padega. Agriculture, pani ki companies aur insurance companies sabse zyada risk mein hain. Woh companies jinki supply chain mazboot hai ya jo alag-alag jagah kaam karti hain, woh shayad isse better deal kar payengi. Investors ko bhi apne portfolio mein yeh climate risks ko dhyan mein rakhna chahiye. Bade climate events se global economy kamzor ho sakti hai, jisse mehngai aur trade par bhi asar padega.