Whalesbook
Sabse pehle baat karte hain crude oil ki. Yeh seedha $115 per barrel ke paar chala gaya hai, jo pichhle 4 saal mein sabse high hai. Asal mein, US aur Iran ke beech badhti hui tension ki wajah se aisa hua hai. Dar lag raha hai ki Strait of Hormuz se oil supply mein rukawat aa sakti hai. Is crude oil rally ne saal-dar-saal lagbhag 90% ki tezi dikhayi hai, jisse ab sabse badi chinta inflation ki hai. Is news ke chalte hi poore Asia mein markets neeche gire hain, Japan ka Nikkei bhi 1.4% tak gir gaya.
Ab aate hain apni favorite tech companies par. Toh bhai, Alphabet (GOOGL) ne Q1 2026 mein $109.9 billion ki revenue dikhayi hai, jo 22% saal-dar-saal badhi hai, aur pichhle 2 saal ki sabse tez growth hai! Unka EPS bhi 82% badhkar $5.11 ho gaya. Lekin, ye log AI mein investment badha rahe hain, capex guidance $180-$190 billion kar diya hai. Microsoft (MSFT) ne bhi accha kaam kiya, Q1 2026 revenue $77.7 billion aur EPS $3.72 raha. Amazon (AMZN) ki net sales $181.5 billion rahi, jo 17% up hai, aur EPS $2.78. Meta Platforms (META) ne $56.3 billion revenue aur $10.44 EPS report kiya, 33% saal-dar-saal growth ke saath. Par Meta ne bhi AI infrastructure ke liye apna capital expenditure $125-$145 billion tak badha diya hai, jo kaafi bada amount hai. Analysts abhi bhi in stocks par 'Buy' ya 'Strong Buy' rating de rahe hain, par future price targets mein thoda fark hai.
Aur ab sabse choti, par important news: US Federal Reserve ne interest rates ko steady rakha hai, par is decision mein 3 members ne alag rai di thi. Matlab, Reserve Bank mein bhi matbhed hai! Is divided policy aur oil price hike ki wajah se global bonds mein badi selloff aa gayi hai. US Treasury yields 1 mahine ke high par pahunch gaye hain, jisme 10-year yield lagbhag 4.43% ke paas hai. Ab market kaan lagakar sun raha hai ki is saal shayad koi rate cut ho hi na, aur agle saal shayad hike ho jaye.
Toh abhi future mein kya risks hain? Sabse pehle toh ye badhti hui oil prices jo seedha inflation ko fuel kar rahi hain aur logon ke kharch karne ki power kam kar rahi hain. Isse tech companies ki demand par bhi asar pad sakta hai. Meta jaisi company ka AI par itna paisa lagana, jab market uncertain hai, thoda sochne wala hai. Agar interest rates aise hi high rahe toh Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon jaise stocks ki valuations par pressure aa sakta hai. Japanese yen ka kamzor hona bhi global trade ke liye ek risk hai.
Aage kya dekhenge? ECB aur Bank of England ke central bank announcements important honge. US-Iran conflict ka oil par asar aur tech companies kaise apne AI investments manage karti hain, yeh sab dekhenge. Analysts ka sentiment abhi bhi positive hai, par kai stocks mein immediate upside kam dikh raha hai.