Whalesbook
Asal mein, ye conflict energy supply par ek bada shock hai, jisse poori duniya ki economy gadbad ho gayi hai. OECD ka kehna hai ki G20 countries mein inflation 4.0% tak pahunch jayegi 2026 mein, jo pehle ke andazon se 1.2 percentage point zyada hai. Aur ye 2027 tak 2.7% ho sakti hai. Ye situation 1970s ki stagflation (jab inflation bahut high thi aur growth ruk gayi thi) jaisi ban rahi hai, jisse central banks ko economy sambhalne mein naak mein dum aa raha hai.
Supply chains ka bhi pura game change ho raha hai. Ab companies efficiency se zyada supply chain ko mazboot banane par focus kar rahi hain. Nearshoring, regionalization, aur zyada stock rakhne jaisi cheezein ho rahi hain. Trade policies aur geopolitical tensions ke karan lagbhag two-thirds supply chain leaders ko lagta hai ki unka kharch badhega. Lagta hai globalization ka woh purana era khatam ho raha hai.
Isi beech, defense sector ki toh lottery lag gayi hai! Geopolitical tensions aur governments dwara badhte kharch (jaise US ka propose kiya hua $1.5 trillion defense budget) ke karan defense stocks bhag rahe hain. Companies ke paas orders ki line lagi hai. Iske bilkul opposite, industrial production slow ho raha hai. Germany jaise bade industrial hubs mein growth half ho sakta hai.
Economicly, Middle East energy supplies par humara reliance ek badi problem hai, jisko normal hone mein five years tak lag sakte hain. Energy import karne wale countries, khaas kar Europe mein, stagflation ka risk badh gaya hai. Central banks ke liye ye situation bahut tricky hai: agar woh interest rate badhate hain toh demand kam ho jayegi, par supply ki problem solve nahi hogi, aur economy ko loss ho sakta hai.
India jaise countries ke liye ye sab manage karna bahut complex hai. Government logistics aur supply chain ko improve karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, par COVID-19 ke samay sirf khaane ki cheezon se alag, ab alag-alag zaroori cheezon ko handle karna ek bada challenge hai. Germany ki economy jo exports par bahut depend karti hai, woh bhi vulnerable hai, aur 2029 tak budget gap €140 billion tak ja sakta hai.
So, 2026 mein global GDP growth bhi OECD ne kam karke 2.9% kar diya hai, aur 2027 ke liye 3.0% predict kiya hai. Countries apni energy security ko lekar bhi plans badal rahi hain, shayad renewables ki taraf zyada focus karein. Domestic energy capacity badhana aur sources ko diversify karna future shocks se bachne ke liye bahut zaroori hai. 1970s ke oil shocks se humne seekha hai ki long-term high inflation aur slow growth possible hai. Ab geopolitics aur fragile supply chains ke time mein strategic adaptation hi kaam aayegi.