Whalesbook
Ajeeb hai na? Ek taraf company bade bade projects jeet rahi hai, ₹221.3 crore ka project South East Central Railway se aur ₹967.9 crore ka East Coast Railway se mila hai, total mila kar ₹1,189 crore se zyada ka business! Normally toh isse stock bhaagna chahiye, par hua ulta. RVNL ka share 3.55% gir kar ₹284.90 par band hua. Iska matlab hai ki market sirf orders nahi dekh raha, kuch aur hi problem hai.
Valuation Ka Chakkar
Asal gadbad hai valuation mein, yaani stock kitna mehenga hai. RVNL ka P/E ratio ho gaya hai 61.23! Ab compare karo iske competitors se: IRFC ka P/E hai sirf 18-23 aur IRCON ka 23-26. Matlab RVNL apne hi cousins se 3 guna mehenga hai. Construction industry ka average P/E toh 16.12 hai. RVNL ka 10-year average P/E toh bas 8.26 tha! Socho, abhi kitna premium de rahe hain log.
Growth vs. Valuation
Aur ye valuation itna high kyun hai jabki company ki sales growth sirf 6.52% rahi hai pichhle 5 saal mein? Sector mein toh tezi hai, government bhi paisa laga rahi hai Gati Shakti jaise plans mein, par RVNL ka P/E uski earnings growth se match nahi kar raha.
Aur Kya Chinta Ki Baat Hai?
Baaki, promoters ne bhi pichhle 3 saal mein holding kam ki hai, jo ek red flag ho sakta hai. Aur Railways sector toh pura government ke spending par chalta hai, toh agar tenders delay hue toh revenue par pressure aa sakta hai.
Market Kya Dekh Raha Hai?
Isiliye market abhi IRFC ya IRCON jaise stable players ko prefer kar raha hai, jinke multiples reasonable hain. RVNL ne pichhle saal ₹447.80 ka high banaya tha, ab usse 34% niche trade kar raha hai. Investors ko lagta hai ki company future growth ko bahut zyada price in kar rahi hai.
Toh bhaiyo, new orders achhe hain, but valuation ka drama abhi chalta rahega. In sabko dhyan mein rakh kar hi decision lena.