Whalesbook
Sabse pehle toh ye samjho ki yeh crisis aaya kyun hai. Global market mein crude oil ke bhaav bade hue hain, aur iska seedha asar India ki aviation industry par hua hai. Asal tension toh Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) ki hai. Ab yeh airlines ke poore kharche ka 55-60% hai, jo pehle sirf 30-40% hua karta tha. Matlab, jeb par bohot bada bojh aa gaya hai.
Sabse zyada maar international flights ko pad rahi hai. April 2026 mein ATF ka rate ₹73 per litre tak badh gaya tha, jisse Europe, North America aur Australia jaise routes par flight chalana nuksaan ka sauda ho gaya hai. Isliye Air India toh July tak apni international flights ghata rahi hai.
Par domestic flights thoda bach gayi hain. Government ne April mein domestic ATF price hike par 25% ka cap laga diya tha, jisse May mein rate stable raha. Isse IndiGo aur SpiceJet jaise carriers ko thodi rahat mili hai domestic routes par, lekin yeh difference industry ke liye aur problems khadi kar raha hai, jaisa Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) keh raha hai.
Airlines koshish kar rahi hain ki yeh badhte hue kharche passengers se le lein, par woh bhi mushkil ho raha hai. IndiGo, jo fuel costs ko hedge nahi karti, seedha market ke fluctuations se deal karti hai. Unhone fuel charges toh lagaye hain, par rules ke hisab se domestic fuel price hike ka sirf 25% hi passengers par daala ja sakta hai. Aur ATF par 11% ka excise duty bhi lag gaya hai, jo profits ko aur kam kar raha hai. Moody's ka kehna hai ki IndiGo ka short booking window (30-45 days) shayad fares increase karne mein madad kare, par abhi profits tight hain.
Air India ne fares aur fuel surcharge badhaye hain, par woh bhi poore losses cover nahi kar paaye. Analysts bol rahe hain ki Air India capacity bhi kam kar rahi hai aur apni fleet ka better use kar rahi hai. FIA ne government se request ki hai ki domestic ATF par jo 11% excise duty hai, use temporary hataya jaye aur pricing methods ko theek kiya jaye taaki costs stabilize ho.
Sirf fuel ka hi issue nahi hai, kuch purane problems bhi industry ko pareshan kar rahe hain. Air India toh privatization ke baad bhi FY2026 mein ₹22,000 Crore se zyada ka loss expect kar rahi hai. SpiceJet ki situation toh aur bhi kharab hai, losses aur negative P/E ratio ke saath. ICRA ne Indian aviation industry ka outlook negative kar diya hai, kyunki fuel costs, global events, aur kamzor rupee sab milkar tension badha rahe hain.
Experts warning de rahe hain ki agar fares aise hi badhte rahe, toh log kam travel karne lagenge, khaas kar budget flyers. Is sector mein FY2026 mein lagbhag ₹17,000–18,000 Crore ka net loss ho sakta hai, aur FY2027 ke forecasts bhi shayad kam ho jayenge. Middle East tensions ke karan Pakistani airspace band hone aur lambi flight paths se fuel aur crew ka kharcha badh gaya hai. Aur rupee ke girne se bhi problem ho rahi hai, kyunki lease aur maintenance jaise kai kharche dollars mein hote hain.
In sab issues ke beech, government Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) ko ATF definition mein le aayi hai, jo ek green future ki taraf kadam hai. India ne 2027 se international flights par SAF blending ke liye targets set kiye hain. Par yeh long-term plans abhi toh in airlines ki madad nahi kar sakte jo current fuel costs se hi lad rahi hain. Domestic SAF blending ke requirements nahi hone ke karan, abhi fossil fuel expenses manage karna hi sabse bada challenge hai. Global crude oil prices ke fluctuations (Brent crude $109-$126 per barrel) airlines ko vulnerable bana rahe hain.