Kyun airlines ki band bajne wali hai?
Bhai, India ki poori aviation industry ek bade crisis mein phas gayi hai. Pichhle saal ke comparison mein FY2026 mein ₹17,000 se lekar ₹18,000 crore tak ka record loss hone ka andesha hai. Iske peeche teen bade reasons hain:
- Jet Fuel ke Bhaav: West Asia mein jo tensions chal rahi hain, uski wajah se crude oil ke price badh gaye hain aur uska seedha asar jet fuel (ATF) par pada hai. March 2026 tak ATF ka price 5.7% badh kar lagbhag ₹96,638 per kilolitre ho gaya hai. Airlines ka 30-40% kharcha toh sirf fuel mein chala jata hai.
- Rupee ka Girna: Dollar ke saamne jab rupee kamzor hota hai, toh airlines ke liye plane kiraye par lena, unki service karna (maintenance) sab mehnga ho jata hai. Ye sab cheezein dollar mein pay karni padti hain aur ye airlines ke total kharche ka 35-50% hota hai.
- Safety Aur Operations: Sirf paison ki problem nahi hai, companies ke andar bhi kaafi issues hain.
In sab wajahon se domestic flights mein travel karne wale passengers ka growth sirf 0-3% rehne ka hai, jo pehle se kaafi kam hai.
Safety mein gadbad aur airlines ke apne issues
Industry mein andar se hi kaafi problems hain. Global level par dekho toh top 25 safest airlines mein koi bhi Indian airline nahi hai. Haan, IndiGo aur SpiceJet ko kuch specific categories mein achha rating mila hai, but overall picture theek nahi hai. Air India ki toh haalat aur bhi patli hai. Unke ek audit mein 51 safety lapses mile the, pilot training se lekar simulators tak mein. Early 2026 mein jab check kiya toh 80% se zyada Air India planes mein technical kharabi mili, jo IndiGo jaise competitors se kaafi zyada hai.
Yaad hai December 2025 mein IndiGo ki kitni flights cancel hui thi? Pilot duty ke naye rules ko adjust karne mein problem ho gayi thi. Isse pata chalta hai ki jab ek hi company ka market mein control zyada ho aur woh high utilization ke liye plan kare, toh chhote se change mein bhi badi gadbad ho sakti hai.
Isi ko dekhte hue, government ne late 2025 mein teen naye domestic airlines launch kiye hain taaki competition badhe.
Air India ki toh profit mein aane ki baat hi mat karo, FY2026 mein unka loss ₹15,000 crore se bhi zyada ho sakta hai. Unhe profit kamane mein abhi lagbhag 3-4 saal aur lag sakte hain. Upar se June 2025 mein jo ek fatal crash hua tha aur Pakistan ka airspace band hone se bhi unka kaam bigda.
Governance aur Market ke disadvantages
Safety aur operations mein problems dikha rahi hain ki management system mein bhi kuch khaas nahi hai. Air India ke technical issues aur purane safety audit wale reports unke restructuring par sawaal utha rahe hain.
Duniya bhar ki airlines fuel ko hedge karti hain (matlab rate fix kar leti hain), lekin Indian carriers aksar spot market se fuel kharidte hain, isiliye jab bhi rate badhte hain, unko seedha nuksan hota hai.
Government ko bhi beech mein aana padta hai, jaise fuel tax kam karna ya seat allocation ke naye rules banana. Lagta hai companies apni dum par nahi, government ke sahare chal rahi hain.
Aur toh aur, planes ki delivery mein bhi bahut der ho rahi hai. Kuch orders toh 15 saal tak chalenge, jahan 1,700 planes aane hain. Isse future growth aur fleet upgrade hone mein rukavat aa sakti hai.
Aage ka scene kya hai?
Indian aviation sector abhi bahari factors par depend kar raha hai. Agar West Asia mein shanti ho jaye aur jet fuel ke prices stable ho jaye, toh shayad kuch baat bane.
ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY2027 tak losses kam ho kar ₹11,000-12,000 crore ho sakte hain, par ye bhi badal sakta hai.
Civil Aviation Ministry bhi fuel tax kam karne ke bare mein soch rahi hai. Aur April 20, 2026 se naye rules aa rahe hain ki airlines ko kam se kam 60% seats ek fixed price par deni hongi, jisse passengers ko thoda relief milega jab fare badh rahe hain.
Lekin abhi bhi picture clear nahi hai. Sab kuch volatile global oil prices, currency fluctuations aur Air India jaise bade players ke restructuring par depend karta hai.