Global market mein bohot instability chal rahi hai, especially West Asia mein jo crisis chal raha hai, uske karan. Isse crude oil prices ekdum se bhaag gaye hain, Brent futures $120 per barrel ke paas pahunch gaye hain. Pehle toh Asia mein refining margins $40-45 tak jaa rahe the, lekin ab yeh negative ho gaye hain, -5% se -10% tak aa gaye hain. Jet fuel ki supply bhi tight ho gayi hai kyunki shipping routes mein problem hai aur war risks ke liye higher costs lag rahe hain.
Airlines ke liye toh yeh situation bohot mushkil hai, kyunki fuel cost unke total operating expenses ka 30-40% hota hai. Sector par already bohot debt hai, jo March 2026 tak ₹1.1 lakh crore ho sakta hai. ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY26 mein industry ko ₹17,000–₹18,000 crore ka loss ho sakta hai. Yaadein taaza hain Kingfisher aur Jet Airways ki jab aise hi high costs ne unko dubo diya tha.
Dusri taraf, oil companies bhi pressures mein hain. Election ke time par govt retail fuel prices badhane ko taiyar nahi hai. Upar se, export duties bhi bohot heavy hain - diesel par ₹21.50/litre aur ATF par ₹29.50/litre.
Ab kya ho raha hai? Airlines aur Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) milkar ek 'crack spread' cap lagane par discuss kar rahe hain, jo $10 se $22 per barrel ke beech ho sakta hai. Agar yeh ho gaya toh ATF prices ₹2 lakh per kilolitre se neeche rahenge, jabki March mein yeh ₹96,000 tha. Lekin OMCs ka kehna hai ki yeh fixed price unki actual refining costs ko cover nahi karega.
Yeh sab jo price cap ki baat ho rahi hai, woh sirf ek short-term solution hai. Sector mein underlying problems jaise bohot zyada debt aur purani profitability ki issues abhi bhi hain. Aur West Asia crisis kab khatam hoga, yeh bhi koi nahi jaanta. So, dekhte hain yeh deal kitni kaam aati hai, lekin asli issues toh abhi bhi baaki hain.