Whalesbook
Okay team, toh sabse pehle toh yeh suno ki Delhivery ke liye yeh quarter kaafi mast raha hai. Unka revenue jumbola 30% badh kar ₹2,850 crore tak pahunch gaya hai. Lekin is sab ke beech, Delhivery ke CEO Sahil Barua ne seedha Amazon ke ek bade move par sawaal khada kar diya hai!
Amazon India apne logistics ko badhane ke liye ₹2,800 crore laga raha hai, jisme fulfillment centers, sortation hubs aur delivery stations sab badha rahe hain. Woh apni quick commerce service 'Amazon Now' ko bhi behtar kar rahe hain taaki choti shehron tak bhi fast delivery ho sake. Lekin Sahil Barua ko yeh Amazon ka plan ki woh apne logistics network ko baaki sellers ke liye bhi khol rahe hain, thoda doubtfull lag raha hai. Unka kehna hai ki yeh ek 'superficial repackaging' hai aur iska koi khaas economic matlab nahi banta. Unhe lagta hai ki Amazon ka network toh khud ki first-party orders ko hi priority dega, especially jab last-mile delivery mein dikkat aaye.
Idhar Delhivery ka performance dekho toh revenue toh 30% badha, ₹2,850 crore ka ho gaya. Par net profit mein thoda sa 0.2% ka dip aaya hai, jo ₹72.4 crore raha. Company ki market cap abhi ₹35,600 crore ke aas paas hai, jo dikhata hai ki market mein competition kitna hai.
Barua ka yeh criticism is wajah se hai kyunki unka mann na hai ki jo network khud ke retail business ke liye bana ho, woh hamesha pehle apne orders ko hi priority dega. Isse baaki sellers ko problem ho sakti hai, kyunki unhe equal service aur priority nahi milegi.
Delhivery khud ko India ki sabse badi aur tezi se badhti hui integrated logistics firm batati hai, jo alag-alag clients ko unbiased service deti hai. Woh ek dedicated third-party logistics provider hain. Ab dekhte hain ki Amazon ka yeh move aage jaakar kya impact karta hai. E-commerce logistics market toh waise bhi 2030 tak USD 7.85 billion tak pahunchne wali hai, jo 12.18% annual growth se badh rahi hai.
Haan, revenue growth ke bawajood, Delhivery ke financials par thodi sawaal hain. Company ka return on equity (ROE) 1.34% se 1.87% ke beech hai aur return on capital employed (ROCE) sirf 2.82% hai. Woh koi dividend bhi nahi dete. Company ka high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, jo 152x se 245x TTM hai, yeh dikhata hai ki future growth toh stock price mein already consider ho chuka hai. Q4 mein profit ka thoda sa girna bhi margin pressure ko dikhata hai, kyunki is sector mein pricing aur operational costs kaafi tough hain.
Amazon ka size toh ek bada challenge hai hi. Barua chahe jo bole, Amazon ka integrated network shayad cost savings aur efficiency de sakta hai jo sirf 3PL providers ke liye mushkil hai. Amazon apni platform dominance ka use karke merchants ko apni logistics services use karne ke liye encourage kar sakta hai, shayad kam rates par, jo Delhivery jaisi companies ke liye khatra hai. Logistics sector bahut fragmented hai aur isme constant tech aur infrastructure mein investment chahiye. Amazon ke paas is race mein kaafi paisa hai.
Par brokers abhi bhi Delhivery ko lekar kaafi positive hain. Majority 'Strong Buy' rating de rahe hain, aur unke 12-month price targets ₹527 se ₹545 ke beech hain. Yeh ek accha upside dikhata hai. India ka logistics market, especially e-commerce ki wajah se, bahut grow karne wala hai. FY25 tak e-commerce logistics revenue mein 23.6% CAGR aur overall market 2030 tak $360 billion tak pahunchega. Yeh growth sabke liye mauka hai, par Amazon jaise players se tough competition bhi rahegi.