Whalesbook
Geopolitics Aur Oil Ka Pressure Bana Aviation Sector Par
Doston, aaj market mein kaafi gadbadh rahi. Middle East mein jo jang wali situation chal rahi hai, usne sabko dara diya hai, aur upar se crude oil ke prices bhi $107 per barrel ke paar ho gaye hain. Is wajah se, India mein aviation stocks, jaise ki IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation) aur SpiceJet, seedha 5% aur 4% neeche gir gaye. IndiGo ka share ₹3,970.05 par aa gaya aur SpiceJet ₹9.53 par.
Is sab ka seedha reason hai Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) ka bhaav. Reports keh rahi hain ki ATF prices mahine dar mahine 130% se zyada badh gaye hain, aur kuch jagahon par toh yeh ₹2 lakh per kilolitre ke bhi upar nikal gaye hain. Yeh airlines ke liye operating cost ka 30-40% hota hai! Is loss se bachne ke liye, IndiGo ne April 2 se naye fuel surcharges laga diye hain. Domestic flights ke liye yeh ₹275 se lekar ₹950 tak hain, aur international flights ke liye ₹10,000 tak bhi ja sakte hain. Yeh sab passengers par hi girega, kyuki government ne ATF hike ka sirf 25% hi passenger par daalne ki permission di hai.
Naye CEO Aur Industry Ki Halat
Is mushkil time mein, IndiGo ne aviation veteran Willie Walsh ko apna naya CEO banaya hai jo August 2026 se join karenge. Unke paas 2008 ki financial crisis aur Covid-19 jaisi situations ko handle karne ka experience hai. Lekin aaj ki market performance ne dikha diya ki situation kitni serious hai.
IndiGo India ki domestic market mein 50% share rakhta hai, par iska P/E ratio 47.55 hai jo industry average se kaafi upar hai. SpiceJet toh loss mein chal raha hai.
Ratings agency ICRA ne bhi industry ka outlook 'stable' se badal kar 'negative' kar diya hai. Unka anuman hai ki FY2026 mein industry ko ₹17,000–18,000 crore ka loss ho sakta hai. Sab factors milakar, aviation sector abhi bade challenges face kar raha hai.