Whalesbook
Kedia ka MHRIL par pressure
Dekho bhaiyo, bade investor Vijay Kedia ne Anand Mahindra ko ek direct message bheja hai. Unka kehna hai ki Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. (MHRIL) ka potential toh India mein bahut hai, par Europe mein chal rahe Holiday Club ke issues ki wajah se stock ki asli kimat investors ko dikh hi nahi rahi. Kedia ne suggest kiya hai ki ya toh Europe wale business ko 'ring-fence' karein, ya restructure karein, ya phir seedha bech dein. Isse India mein jo company ka zabardast kaam chal raha hai, woh apne aap mein hi chamak payega.
India ka hospitality sector to rockets pe!
Aur ye koi mazak nahi hai, India ka hospitality sector abhi aag laga raha hai. Estimates ke mutabik, India 2030 tak teesri sabse badi economy ban jayega, aur log tourism par 19% annually tak kharch karenge 2030 tak! Branded leisure hospitality business toh USD 4 billion tak pahunch sakta hai FY30 tak. Hotel sector bhi FY26 mein 9-12% grow karne wala hai. Aisi situation mein MHRIL ka stock 26% (YTD) aur pichhle ek saal mein 36% gir gaya hai, aur apne 52-week low ₹220.30 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai. Ajeeb hai na?
Europe ka business ban raha hai bojh
Financials bhi ye baat prove karte hain. MHRIL ke sirf India operations ki income FY26 mein ₹1,613.3 crore tak pahunchi, aur EBITDA 20.5% badhkar ₹592.8 crore ho gaya. Lekin jab consolidated figures dekho, toh Europe ka Holiday Club Resorts FY26 mein sirf EUR 137.1 million income kama paya, aur usmein bhi EUR 1.2 million ka negative EBITDA aur EUR 6.8 million ka bada loss hua. Yehi woh 'drag' hai jiske baare mein Kedia baat kar rahe hain.
Valuation ka scene aur analysts ki rai
MHRIL abhi lagbhag 66.5x ke trailing P/E par trade kar raha hai, jiska market cap ₹4,646 crore hai. Ye compare karein toh Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) 41.3x aur EIH Ltd 32.8x par hain. Analyst views bhi divided hain - MarketsMojo ne 'Strong Sell' rating di hai company ke high debt (4.52x Debt to Equity) ko dekh kar. Lekin dusri taraf, Wall Street analysts ka average 12-month price target ₹448.8 hai, matlab kafi upside dikh raha hai. Ye differences shayad company ke structure mein bade changes ka intezar kar rahe hain.
Debt aur Europe ki weakness ka darr
Company par debt ka bhi ek concern hai, jahan enterprise value market cap se ₹26.77 billion zyada hai (March 2026 tak). Europe wale segment se consistent losses aur negative financial trends bade risks hain. Stock bhi kafi weak dikh raha hai. Toh investors ke liye sawaal yeh hai ki kya strategic changes honge, ya debt aur Europe ke losses hi haavi rahenge?
Aage ka outlook
Baki, India ka hospitality sector toh strong hi dikh raha hai, revenue growth FY26 mein 6-8% rehne ki ummeed hai. Analysts ko FY27 mein MHRIL ke PAT mein 15-20% growth dikh rahi hai. Sab kuch depend karta hai ki company Europe ke issues ko kaise sort karti hai aur India ke domestic tourism trend ka kitna fayda uthati hai. Isi mein value unlock hone ka potential hai.