Whalesbook
Okay, toh hua kya hai ki jet fuel ke prices badh gaye hain aur West Asia mein bhi situation tight hai. Iska asar seedha international flights par dikh raha hai. Jaise Mumbai se Kuala Lumpur ka fare 110% badh gaya, New Delhi se Ho Chi Minh 58%, aur Bengaluru se Singapore 33%. Airlines ke operational costs bhi badh rahe hain, jiske karan ticket prices badhani pad rahi hain. Domestic flights toh 90% se zyada full chal rahi hain, par sawal ye hai ki kya airlines itne high prices maintain kar payengi. Air India ne toh fuel surcharge badha bhi diya hai.
Is mehngai ka asar logo ke travel plans par ho raha hai. Travel agencies ko international bookings cancel hone ke messages aa rahe hain. Socho, agar ticket ₹30,000 se badh kar ₹45,000-₹50,000 ho jaye toh koi bhi dobara sochega. Aur upar se dollar bhi strong hai, local costs bhi zyada hain. Hotels bhi rates badha rahe hain, kuch toh Goa mein dinner serve nahi kar pa rahe due to LPG issues. Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality (FAITH) ne estimate kiya hai ki summer travel demand 15-20% tak kam ho sakti hai.
Ab baat karte hain India ki sabse badi domestic airline, InterGlobe Aviation (Jisko hum Indigo bhi kehte hain) ki. Iska market cap around $14.4 billion hai aur share price ₹3,200 ke aas paas chal raha hai, jo pichle mahine 8% bhaga tha. Company apna fleet badha rahi hai, par inka profit seedha crude oil prices se juda hai. Brent crude abhi around $88 per barrel hai, jo pichle quarter mein 15% badha tha. Ek $10 ka crude oil jump inke profit ko 2-3% tak gira sakta hai. Wahi Air India FY27 tak profit mein aane ki koshish kar rahi hai, aur SpiceJet debt issues face kar rahi hai.
Sabse bada risk ye hai ki travel demand hi kam ho jaye, especially international aur premium domestic travel. Agar prices aise hi rahi toh log travel karna kam kar denge. History mein bhi dekha gaya hai ki fuel prices badhne par airlines ke stocks mein volatility aati hai. Analysts abhi bhi InterGlobe par positive hain, mostly 'Buy' ya 'Hold' rating de rahe hain, par near-term gains mein caution dikha rahe hain kyunki prices ka impact demand par ho sakta hai.