Whalesbook
Arey, IHCL ka jo Q3 result aaya na, woh thoda mixed scene hai. Ek taraf toh company ne profit mein record tod diya, matlab 50.86% ka jump dikhaya, jo ho gaya ₹954.24 Crore! Yeh sab isliye ho paya kyunki unhone ek joint venture stake bech diya aur ₹327 Crore ka faayda kama liya. Revenue bhi acha khasa, 12.19% badh kar ₹2,841.96 Crore ho gaya.
Par yahan asli game hai. Jab hum numbers ke peeche dekhte hain, toh pata chalta hai ki company ke EBITDA margins toh wahi 37.9% par atke hue hain, last year jitne hi. Iska matlab hai ki revenue badhne ke bawajood, operating profit utna nahi badha. Isi wajah se stock market mein bhi thodi halki si giravat dekhi gayi, lagbhag 4% stock neeche chala gaya tha.
Ab market mein baat ho rahi hai ki hospitality sector mein aage chal kar growth toh 6-8% rehne wali hai, kyunki domestic travel aur business meetings chal rahi hain. IHCL bhi apne 'Accelerate 2030' plan ke tahat hotels ki संख्या dobara karne wala hai. Lekin asli suspense valuation mein hai. IHCL ka share price P/E ratio ke hisab se bahut mehnga lag raha hai, around 49x to 75x, jabki EIH Ltd. jaise competitors 28x to 35x par mil rahe hain. Toh market ye soch raha hai ki kya stock mein already itni growth price mein include ho gayi hai?
Isi wajah se analysts bhi divided hain. Nuvama jaisi firms keh rahi hain 'Reduce karo' aur target diya hai ₹636. Unko lagta hai ki management fees kam ho rahi hain aur operating performance mein koi khaas dum nahi hai. Unhone FY26 aur FY27 ke forecasts bhi kam kar diye hain.
Lekin dusri taraf, Nomura ne ₹830, Motilal Oswal ne ₹900, Axis Securities ne ₹820, aur Anand Rathi ne ₹765 ka target de kar 'Buy' rating di hai. Unka kehna hai ki company ki expansion strategy aur market position bahut strong hai aur woh apne 2030 targets ko bhi cross kar sakte hain. Toh basically, profit toh dikh raha hai, par valuation aur operational side par investors abhi bhi thoda socho vichaar kar rahe hain.