Whalesbook
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Global market mein jo crude oil ka bhav $100 ke paar pahunch gaya hai na, uski wajah se textile industry ki sabse badi problem shuru ho gayi hai. Manufacturers ne bataya hai ki unka raw material ka kharcha lagbhag 20-25% badh gaya hai. Ye sab isliye ho raha hai kyunki polyester aur nylon jaise jo synthetics textile production mein 60% tak use hote hain, woh crude oil se bante hain. Inka price lagbhag 20% aur 5% badh gaya hai. Aur toh aur, dyes aur chemicals ka price bhi 20% upar gaya hai, jiski wajah se dyeing ka kharcha hi 30% badh gaya hai! Poora garment manufacturing ka expense 10-15% badh gaya hai bhai.
Aur baat yahi nahi khatam hoti. Shipping aur freight costs toh jaise aasmaan choo rahe hain! Kai reports ke mutabik, ye 80-90% tak badh gaye hain. Iska reason Red Sea issues aur lambi shipping routes hain. Matlab, har ek garment ko ship karne mein extra ₹12 se ₹55 tak lag sakte hain. Isse Indian exporters ka competition Bangladesh aur Vietnam jaise countries se mushkil ho gaya hai, jo saste mein production karte hain. Industry ka average P/E ratio 27.98 hai aur market cap lagbhag ₹1,49,694.5 crore hai, toh valuations bhi thoda risky lag rahe hain expenses badhne ke karan.
Ab companies kya kar rahi hain? Woh apne expenses absorb kar rahi hain taaki consumers par price na badhayein. Unki main strategy hai exports badhana, kyunki global markets mein tariffs stable hain aur brands China se shift ho rahi hain. Par agar global demand hi kam ho jaaye toh kya hoga? Inflation aur rising interest rates ki wajah se export markets mein demand kam ho rahi hai, jiski wajah se 2023 mein India ke textile aur apparel exports 10% gir gaye the. Sarkari schemes like PM MITRA Parks aur PLI schemes help kar sakti hain, par current volatile prices aur shipping delays ke samne unka asar kam lag raha hai.
Asal mein, India ka textile sector synthetics par bahut zyada depend karta hai jo seedha oil prices se linked hai. Isliye, jab bhi oil prices upar jaati hain, inki cost structure vulnerable ho jati hai. Freight costs bhi ek structural change lag raha hai, permanent hi samjho. Agar oil prices $100 ke upar rahi, toh India ki GDP growth bhi slow ho sakti hai aur inflation badh sakti hai, jisse textile industry ke already kam margins par aur pressure aayega.
Analysts 2025 tak 8-9% growth predict kar rahe hain, par ye tabhi hoga jab cotton aur polyester yarn prices stable rahein aur exchange rates favourable hon. Par current inflation aur supply chain issues ne ye outlook thoda hazy kar diya hai. Agar high input aur logistics costs aise hi chalte rahe, toh companies ko price badhana padega, jiski wajah se export orders kam ho sakte hain aur domestic market bhi slow ho sakta hai. Surat ke weavers ne bhi cost afford na hone ke karan production rok diya hai. Sector ka future global commodity prices par aur logistics issues ke solution par depend karta hai, aur geopolitical tensions ek bada challenge bane hue hain.