Whalesbook
Profit Ka Funda Kya Hai?
Abhi jo yeh ₹51,970 Crore ka profit dikh raha hai na, uska sabse bada reason hai Department of Telecommunications dwara re-assess kiye gaye Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues mein ₹55,622 Crore ka gain. Matlab, company ne apne accounts se kaafi saara debt hata diya. Is accounting trick ki wajah se headline profit toh badh gaya, par company ki asli financial haalat mein koi khasi badlav nahi aaya. Stock toh phir bhi ₹12.95 ke aas paas chal raha hai, jo iske 52-week high ke kareeb hai. Par haan, P/E ratio abhi bhi negative hai, lagbhag -5.66, jo batata hai ki company abhi bhi loss mein hai.
Competitors Se Kitna Peeche?
Chalo, ab dekhte hain ki Vodafone Idea apne bade rivals, Reliance Jio aur Bharti Airtel se kahan khada hai. Haalanki Vi ka Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) ₹190 ho gaya hai, jo ek aachi baat hai. Lekin Bharti Airtel ka ARPU ₹259 aur Reliance Jio ka ₹213.7 hai. Iska matlab hai ki Vi abhi bhi ache customers ko retain karne mein struggle kar raha hai. Company ne 4G coverage 86.3% tak badhaya hai aur 80+ cities mein 5G launch kiya hai, lekin Jio aur Airtel toh 2023 mein hi widespread 5G le aaye the. Market share ki baat karein toh Jio ka 39.2%, Airtel ka 37.7% hai, jabki Vi sirf 17.13% par hai. Lagta hai Vi abhi bhi har quarter mein 1 million users kho sakta hai jabki competitors badh rahe hain.
Balance Sheet Ka Sach
Ab baat karte hain company ki Balance Sheet ki, jo kaafi problematic lag rahi hai. Vi ka net worth negative ₹35,758 Crore hai. Iska matlab hai ki iske debts, assets se kaafi zyada hain. Total debt, spectrum aur AGR dues milakar ₹2.3 lakh Crore se bhi upar hai. Itna zyada debt aur negative Debt-to-Equity ratio, yeh sab serious financial trouble ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Company apna ₹45,000 Crore ka 3-saal ka capex plan chalane ke liye naya funding dhoondh rahi hai, equity aur warrants ke through. Government ke paas bhi lagbhag 49% stake hai, jo AGR dues relief ke baad aaya hai. FY29 tak cash EBITDA ko ₹30,000 Crore tak pahunchane ka target ambitious hai, jiske liye funding aur subscriber growth dono zaroori hain.
Analysts Kya Kehte Hain?
Experts ka kehna hai ki Vodafone Idea ke liye future cautious hai. Analysts ne average 12-month price target ₹9.84 diya hai, jo current price se kam hai. Kuch firms 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur legal relief ki baat kar rahe hain, lekin zyadaatar log Vi ki kamzor finances aur intense competition ke wajah se bechne ki salah de rahe hain. Company ka network expand karna aur funding secure karna zaroori hai, lekin Jio aur Airtel jaise strong players ke saamne profit kamana aur steady growth maintain karna abhi bhi mushkil lag raha hai. Kuch analysts toh agle saal bhi net loss per share expect kar rahe hain.