Whalesbook
Dekho, VIL ke shares mein aaj 5% ka jump dikha hai, aur woh bhi ₹12.80 ke aas paas jo unka 52-week high hai. Piche mahine toh 35% bhaag gaye the!
Sabko lag raha hai ki company kuch bada karne wali hai, especially 5G ke liye paisa judane wala hai. Ek board meeting bhi hai May 16, 2026 ko jahan ye fund-raising discuss hoga. Lekin RSI 75.12 ke aas paas hai, matlab stock shayad thoda zyada hi overbought ho gaya hai. Ye rally mostly speculation par chal rahi hai, operational improvement se zyada.
Par bhai, asli picture thodi alag hai. Bharti Airtel aur Reliance Jio ke comparison mein VIL toh bahut piche hai. Telecom sector grow kar raha hai, par VIL ke paas paisa nahi hai 5G mein invest karne ko. Subscriber base gir kar 192 million ho gaya hai December 2025 tak.
Haan, ICRA ne March 2026 mein unka outlook 'Positive' kiya hai aur rating 'BBB' di hai, aur government se ₹2,307 crore CLAM ke through milne wale hain. Lekin total debt abhi bhi ₹2.33 trillion hai, aur company lagatar losses mein hai. Fund milega tabhi network badha payenge aur 5G rollout kar payenge.
Ab sabse badi tension lenders ki hai. Bank, jaise SBI ka consortium, abhi tak ₹25,000 crore ka loan approve nahi kiya hai jab tak promoters khud guarantee na de dein. Vodafone Group bhi apna 19% stake shayad cash inject karne ke bajaye treasury use ke liye transfer kar raha hai, jisse kuch log exit ka signal bhi maan rahe hain.
Churn rate zyada hai, aur average revenue per user (ARPU) bhi competitors se kam hai. Recovery future tariff hikes par depend karti hai, jo shayad 2026 ke end mein aaegi, shayad tab tak bahut der ho jaye cash flow gap bharne ke liye. Waise, Kumar Mangalam Birla ka wapas non-executive chairman ban na ek achhi baat hai, par company ka financial decline kaafi bada hai.
Analysts ki bhi alag-alag rai hai. Kuch ko ICRA ki positive rating aur debt restructuring se relief hai, par average price target lagbhag ₹9.84 se ₹10.20 ke beech mein hai, jo abhi ke current price se zyada bada upside nahi dikhata. CLSA aur Citi jaise brokerages ise 'high-risk buy' keh rahe hain, fund-raising aur AGR relief ko positive maan kar, par inherent risks ko bhi highlight kar rahe hain. Asli game toh ye hai ki company kitna debt secure kar paati hai, capex plan kaise execute karti hai aur tariff hikes ka fayda kaise uthati hai taaki sustainable recovery ho sake.