Achanak Share Mein Tezi Kyun Aayi?
Is share ke bhaagne ke peeche sabse bada reason toh promoter ka confidence aur government ki meherbaani hai. Kumar Mangalam Birla ne khud open market se 59.6 million shares khareede hain, ismein lagbhag ₹66.18 crore kharch kiye hain. Isse unka direct stake badh kar 0.07% ho gaya hai. Aur government ne AGR dues, jo lagbhag ₹87,700 crore the, unhein FY41 tak postpone kar diya hai. Isse company ki cash problem thodi kam hogi aur saamne aane wale kharchon mein relief milegi. Isi wajah se 10th Feb 2026 ko share price ₹11.58 tak pahunch gaya tha.
Market Badi Hai, Par VIL Ka Position Kaisa Hai?
Indian telecom market toh waise bhi bohot grow kar raha hai, experts bol rahe hain ki 2034 tak yeh $72.32 billion ka ho sakta hai. Logon ki data usage badh rahi hai aur 5G ka craze bhi hai. Overall ARPU bhi badh kar ₹193 by Sep 2024 ho gaya hai. Lekin VIL ka Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) abhi bhi competitors se peeche hai, jo Q3 FY26 mein sirf ₹172 tha.
Financial Health Check: Losses Aur Debt Ka Bojh
Company ka market cap February 2026 mein ₹1.25 trillion ke aas-paas hai, lekin asli picture toh numbers mein hai. VIL ko lagatar loss ho raha hai, jiski wajah se iska P/E ratio negative hai, lagbhag -5.10 on 10 Feb 2026 ke aas-paas. Ab Bharti Airtel ko dekho, jiska P/E 38.9 hai! Company ka P/B ratio bhi -1.43 hai, jo market ke median se kaafi neeche hai. Analysts toh yeh bhi keh rahe hain ki iski intrinsic value sirf ₹3.83 hai, matlab abhi jo market price hai woh kaafi overvalued lag raha hai.
Competition Aur 5G Mein Pichadna
Sabse badi dikkat yeh hai ki VIL ka 5G network March 2025 mein launch hua, jabki Reliance Jio aur Bharti Airtel 2022 se hi 5G services de rahe hain. Is late entry se company ko 5G market share pakadne mein mushkil hogi. Subscribers ke mamle mein bhi, VIL ka wireless share 17.44% Sep 2025 mein hai, jabki Reliance Jio 41.08% aur Bharti Airtel 33.59% share hold karte hain.
Capex Plans Aur Uska Financial Impact
VIL ne agle 3 saal mein network ko mazboot karne ke liye ₹45,000 crore invest karne ka plan banaya hai. Par company par pehle se hi bohot zyada debt hai aur spectrum fees bhi kaafi high hai, toh itna bada investment karna aur uske liye paisa judana bohot challenging hoga.
Analysts Ki Rai Aur Future Outlook
Isi sab ko dekhte hue, 21 analysts milakar VIL ke liye average price target ₹9.40 de rahe hain, jo abhi ke current price se kam hai. Company ka Mojo Grade bhi 'Strong Sell' se 'Sell' par downgrade ho gaya hai. Brokerage reports ka bhi average target ₹8.67 ke aas-paas hai, jo market ke sentiment ko dikhata hai.
Final Word
Toh bhaiyo, promoter ka invest aur government ki relief ek temporary support zaroor hai. Asli jeet toh tab hogi jab company lagatar loss se bahar niklegi, ARPU badhayegi, aur competitors ko takkar dekar apna market share improve karegi. Abhi ka path bohot mushkil lag raha hai, aur company ko flawless execution dikhana hoga.