Whalesbook
Premium Valuation Hai Par Execution Ka Dar
Dekho, Motilal Oswal ne Vi ka price target badhaya hai ₹10 tak. Yeh unhone ek DCF model use karke kiya hai, jisme Vi ko future earnings ke hisaab se 14.5x EV/EBITDA par value kiya gaya hai FY28 ke liye. Matlab Vi, apne rivals se expensive dikh raha hai, kyunki Bharti Airtel India mein sirf 10.5x EV/EBITDA par trade kar raha hai. Yeh premium Vi ke liye ek challenge hai kyunki wo abhi bhi losses mein hai aur Bharti ke paas strong financials hain.
Vi ki market cap lagbhag ₹30,000 crore hai, jo Bharti Airtel ke ₹4.5 trillion se bahut chota hai.
Growth Goals Hawa Mein Hai?
Brokerage firm ke according, management ka double-digit revenue growth aur FY29 tak cash EBITDA ko triple karne ka goal "a big ask" hai. Iske liye Vi ko kuch cheezon par depend karna padega jo unke control mein nahi hain:
- Bhari-bharkam debt fundraising ka complete hona.
- Tariff hikes ya market mein pricing ka stabilise hona.
- Subscriber numbers ka theek rehna.
- Competition thoda kam hona.
- Government se regulatory relief milna, especially spectrum payment mein.
Government ne already payment deferrals aur interest ko equity mein convert karne ki ijaazat di hai, jo ek support hai.
Competition Aur Dusre Players
Report yeh bhi kehti hai ki agar Vi ek strong player banna chahta hai, toh usse un rivals se takkar leni padegi jinke paas zyada cash flow, better networks aur strong products hain. Isse sabhi telecom companies ke liye margin pressure badh sakta hai, khaas kar jab 5G mein heavy investment ho rahi hai. Bharti Airtel ki tarah Vi ke paas consistently strong cash flow nahi hai.
Chhote Changes, Bade Risks
Motilal Oswal ne FY27 ke estimates mein zyada changes nahi kiye, lekin FY28 revenue aur EBITDA projections ko 3-6% badhaya hai. Yeh average revenue per user (ARPU) mein 2.5% ki badhotri se hua hai. Par mann ki baat yeh hai ki company ke turnaround plan mein execution risks bahut zyada hain. Bahut saare analysts Vi ko 'Hold' ya 'Neutral' rating de rahe hain.
Bade Risks: Funding Aur Competition
Sabse bada risk Vi ke liye uska external funding par reliance hai. Agar funding nahi mili toh cash ki bahut badi problem ho sakti hai. Company ko Bharti Airtel aur Reliance Jio jaise competitors se bhi piche rehne mein dikkat ho rahi hai jinke paas zyada paisa aur network advantage hai. Vi ke liye growth targets achieve karna tabhi possible hai jab yeh sab challenges overcome ho jayengi.