Whalesbook
Achanak itna bada profit kaise?
Dekho, yeh jo ₹51,970 Crore ka net profit dikh raha hai na, yeh asal mein Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) liabilities par mili ₹55,622 Crore ki relief se aaya hai. Yaani, company ne operating mein itna kamaaya nahi, tax adjustment ne sab set kar diya. Promoter Aditya Birla Group ne bhi ₹4,730 Crore ka investment kiya hai, jo achhi baat hai. Par andar ki baat ye hai ki company operational losses mein chal rahi hai, Q4 mein lagbhag ₹5,515 Crore aur poore FY26 mein ₹24,059 Crore ki operational loss hui hai.
Network upgrade ka big plan!
Ab Vi bina rukawat aage badhna chahta hai. FY27 se FY29 tak, woh apne network par ₹45,000 Crore kharch karne ka plan bana rahe hain. Isse 60,000-70,000 naye sites lagane ka goal hai, taaki 125 Million aur logon tak reach kar sakein. Saath hi, CEO Abhijit Kishore confident hain ki unhein lenders se ₹25,000 Crore ka funded debt aur ₹10,000 Crore ki non-funded credit lines mil jayengi, jismein SBI bhi shamil hai. FY26 mein unka capex ₹8,700 Crore tha, jo ab badhega jabki FY25 mein ₹9,600 Crore tha.
Competitors se kitna peeche hai Vi?
Jabki Bharti Airtel ka market cap ₹11.90 Trillion aur Reliance Industries (RIL) ka ₹18.08 Trillion hai, Vodafone Idea ka market cap sirf ₹1.40 Trillion hai. Ye bahut bada difference hai! Airtel toh India ki doosri sabse badi listed company ban gayi hai. Vi ka P/E ratio bhi negative ya 4.03 ke aas-paas hai, jabki Airtel ka 34.31 aur RIL ka 22.37 hai. Sector growth 8.9% CAGR se badh raha hai 2033 tak, par Vi ka stock CAGR -15.2% raha hai pichhle 9 saal se. Subscriber base mein bhi Vi, Jio (492 Million) aur Airtel (300 Million) se kaafi peeche hai, jismein unke paas sirf 128 Million hain September 2025 tak.
Profit toh sirf paper pe hai?
Asal mein, yeh profit ek 'accounting illusion' hai, jaisa kuch analysts keh rahe hain. Company par spectrum aur AGR ke liye ₹1.52 lakh Crore ka deferred payment hai March 31, 2026 tak. Yeh ₹25,000 Crore ka debt funding lenders ke confidence par nirbhar karta hai, jo operational reality dekh kar shayad mushkil ho. Analyst log stock ko 'Neutral' rating de rahe hain aur target price ₹10.08 diya hai, jiska matlab hai ki shares mein 22% tak ka downside ho sakta hai.
Management kya sochti hai?
Management ka kehna hai ki woh cash EBITDA margins ko 20% se badha kar 35%+ le jayenge, revenue double-digit growth karega aur EBITDA 3 saal mein triple ho jayega. FY27-FY29 ke liye unhein lagbhag ₹1 lakh Crore chahiye, jo EBITDA, debt, credit lines, tax refunds aur promoter capital se aayega. Sab kuch funding milne aur market mein competion se bahar nikalne par depend karta hai.