Whalesbook
Toh bhai, Vodafone Idea ke liye paiso ka chakkar shuru ho gaya hai. 16th May ko inka board ek meeting mein paisa raise karne ka plan final karega. Plan hai ₹25,000 Crore ka debt aur ₹10,000 Crore working capital ke liye. Aur haan, network upgrade aur 5G services ke liye aage ₹45,000 Crore bhi lagane hain three years mein. Abhi tak ₹18,000 Crore lag chuke hain. Stock abhi around ₹11.89 chal raha hai, 52 week range ₹6.12 se ₹12.80 hai. Company ka market cap ₹1.32 lakh Crore hai. Losses itne hain ki P/E ratio negative -4.32x hai. May 12 ko 919 million se zyada shares trade hue.
Ye sab isliye ho raha hai kyunki India mein ab do hi bade players hain - Reliance Jio aur Bharti Airtel. March 2026 tak, Jio ka market share 39.2%, Airtel ka 37.7%, aur Vi ka sirf 17.13% hai. 5G mein bhi Vi kaafi peeche hai. Jio aur Airtel ne 2023 tak 5G cover kar liya tha, Vi toh 2025 mein shuru hui aur abhi 133 cities mein hai. Q4 2025 tak Jio ke paas 210.5 million 5G users the, Airtel ke paas 182.4 million, aur Vi ke paas sirf 6.1 million. ARPU ki baat karein toh Vi ka sabse kam hai, ₹186 (Q3FY26) ke mukable Airtel ka ₹256 aur Jio ka ₹211 hai (Sept 2025). Matlab, users se paise kamane mein bhi Vi thodi pichhad gayi hai.
Ab company ki financial health dekho toh sab darr jaate hain. Debt ₹2.3 lakh Crore se bhi zyada hai aur shareholder equity negative ₹-824.6 billion hai. Losses bhi lagatar ho rahe hain, jaise Q3FY26 mein ₹5,286 Crore ka loss. Haal hi mein DoT ne AGR dues 27% kam karke ₹64,046 Crore kiye aur FY36 tak payment pause kar diya. Par FY36 se FY41 tak bade payments karne hain. Government ab company mein lagbhag 49% stake hold karti hai is relief ke badle. ICRA ne outlook ko 'Positive' kiya hai March 2026 mein, par asli masle abhi bhi hain.
Analysts is situation ko lekar thode cautious hain. Zyada tar log 'Neutral' stance rakhte hain, kyunki recovery ke chances bhi hain aur risks bhi. Average price target around ₹9.84 hai, jo ₹5.50 se ₹15.00 tak range karta hai. Koi 'BUY' bol raha hai toh koi 'REDUCE'. ARPU growth aur premium services par focus karna achha hai, par subscribers kam ho rahe hain aur network & market share mein Jio/Airtel se bahut zyada gap hai. Ye naya funding kitna kaam aayega ye dekhna hoga, kyunki company ka target hai revenue double karna aur EBITDA triple karna 3 saal mein. Lekin itna bada debt aur do bade competitors ke saamne Vi ka safar aasan nahi lagta.