Whalesbook
Chalo, pehle is ₹35,000 Crore ki deal ki baat karte hain. Vi ne alag alag banks se, jismein State Bank of India bhi hai, is deal ko finalize karne mein kaafi tezi dikhai hai. Is ₹35,000 Crore mein se lagbhag ₹25,000 Crore loans honge aur ₹10,000 Crore non-fund based facilities. Paisa kahan jayega? Seedha network ko behtar banane, 4G coverage badhane aur 5G services launch karne mein. Yeh sab AGR dues mein mili relief ke baad hi possible ho paaya hai, jisse company ki government liabilities ₹23,649 Crore tak kam ho gayi hain aur repayment ke liye bhi lambi moratorium mil gayi hai. CEO ka kehna hai ki yeh paisa network expansion ke liye hai, kisi legal dues ke liye nahi.
Ab thoda competitors par bhi nazar daal lete hain. India ka telecom sector 5G ke race mein full on hai. Bharti Airtel, jinka market cap ₹11.78 lakh crore hai, unka ARPU ₹257 chal raha hai. Woh apni 5G network ko NSA se SA mein shift kar rahe hain aur FY25 ke liye unka capex ₹28,500 Crore rehne wala hai. Analysts toh Airtel ko 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur target price ₹2,300-₹2,350 tak de rahe hain! Dusri taraf, Reliance Jio ne toh December 2023 tak poore India mein 5G network daal diya hai, jismein ₹2 lakh crore lagaye hain. Unka ARPU ₹180.5 hai. Jabki Vi, is sab mein kaafi peeche hai.
Ab Vi ki apni haalat dekhte hain. Woh AGR relief aur funding ke bawajood, abhi bhi mushkil mein hain. Company ki shareholder equity negative mein ₹-824.6 billion hai, matlab liabilities assets se bahut zyada hain. Debt-to-equity ratio toh -282.9% hai! Unka total debt lagbhag ₹2.4 trillion (December 2025 tak) pahunch gaya hai. Woh abhi profitable bhi nahi hain. Analysts Vi ko 'Neutral' se 'Hold' rating de rahe hain aur target price sirf ₹10-₹13 tak ka hai. Sector toh 8.9% CAGR se grow kar raha hai aur ARPU bhi badhne wala hai, par Vi iska fayda uthata hai ya nahi, yeh toh funding milne ke baad hi pata chalega.
Toh overall scene yeh hai ki India mein telecom business badh raha hai, revenues badhne wali hain aur ARPU bhi umeed hai ₹220 cross karega FY26 tak. Vodafone Idea ke liye yeh ₹35,000 Crore ki funding survival ka sawaal hai. AGR relief se thodi saans mili hai, par company ko ab ek sustainable business plan dikhana hoga. Dekhna yeh hai ki kya yeh lifeline Vi ko apne bade competitors se gap kam karne mein madad karegi, ya sirf situation ko postpone karegi.