Whalesbook
Toh bhai, Vodafone Idea (Vi) ke share prices April mein achanak se zorr se upar gaye hain. Iske peeche do main reasons hain - ek toh yeh hope hai ki Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) ka mamla government mein settle ho jayega, aur doosra technical charts par stock kaafi support dikha raha tha. Bajaj Broking waale bhi confident hain aur unhone stock ka target ₹11.60 set kiya hai.
Par agar asliyat dekhein toh company ki financial haalat kaafi nazuk hai. Stock ka P/E ratio negative mein chal raha hai, lagbhag -3.44 (April 2026 tak ka data hai). Matlab company abhi bhi losses mein hai. Aur bhai, government ne ₹87,695 crore ki liabilities par relief toh de di hai, par iska repayment March 2041 tak jaana hai. Matlab paison ka pressure toh abhi bhi bana rahega.
Wohi taraf, apne competitors Bharti Airtel aur Reliance Jio toh full speed mein hain. Bharti Airtel ka market value lagbhag ₹11.30 trillion hai aur uska P/E positive 36.7 hai. Matlab woh kama rahe hain. Analysts bhi 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur 25.11% tak upside dekh rahe hain, woh bhi ARPU badha kar aur 5G se paise kama kar. Reliance Jio ka market value toh aur bhi zyada, roughly ₹18.47 trillion hai. Overall telecom sector bhi grow kar raha hai, FY2026 tak operating income ₹3.5-3.7 lakh crore hone ka andaaza hai. Sab ARPU aur stable prices ka fayda utha rahe hain, jahan Vi pichhad raha hai.
Analysts Vi ke baare mein zyada positive nahi hain. Unki nazar mein, negative P/E ratio aur 2041 tak chalne waale repayment plans bade risks hain. AGR reassessment mein bhi uncertainty hai. Financial problems ki wajah se Vi, 5G aur naye services mein competitors jitna invest nahi kar pa raha. Isliye, majority analysts ka rating 'Sell' ya 'Hold' hai, aur average target ₹9.76 ke aaspaas hai. Kuch log toh ₹5.00 tak ka target bhi de rahe hain. Abhi q2 2024 mein TRAI ne non-compliance ke liye penalty bhi lagayi thi, jo operational problems ko aur dikhati hai.
Toh bhai, Vi ka future abhi clear nahi hai. Ek taraf technicals aur AGR reassessment se temporary support mil sakta hai Bajaj Broking ke ₹11.60 target tak. Lekin maximum analysts abhi bhi cautious hain aur ₹9.76 ke aaspaas target de rahe hain. Sector grow kar raha hai, par Vi ko debt manage karna hoga, profit kamana hoga aur regulations follow karne honge, tabhi kuch ho sakta hai.