Whalesbook
Toh bhai log, Vi ne officially announce kiya hai ki unki board ne ₹4,730 Crore raise karne ki approval de di hai. Yeh paisa Suryaja Investments ko warrants issue karke aayega, jiska price ₹11 per share rakha gaya hai. Agar yeh warrants convert ho gaye toh Suryaja Investments ka stake company mein 3.82% ho jayega. Yeh paisa Vi ke liye bahut zaroori hai taaki woh apna cash improve kar sake aur competition mein tikne ke liye network upgrade kar payein, specially Jio aur Airtel ke saamne.
Shares ki baat karein toh, recent mein share price ₹12.90-₹13.00 ke aas paas chal raha tha. Yeh ₹11 ka warrant price is range mein fit ho jaata hai. Recent mahine mein share mein 37% aur pichhle saal se 79% ka jump bhi dekha gaya hai, par yeh sab Vi ki recovery efforts par depend karta hai.
Ab aata hai asli wala point. Indian telecom market toh grow kar raha hai, around 10-12% FY2026 mein. Lekin Vi ki position bahut risky hai. Unki market value around ₹1.40 lakh crore hai, jabki Bharti Airtel ₹11.61 lakh crore aur Reliance Industries ₹18.08 lakh crore par hai. Vi toh lagataar loss mein chal rahi hai. Unka P/E ratio dekho toh -5.71x hai, jabki Airtel ka 34.69x aur Jio parent ka 41.25x hai. Is loss mein company financially stable kaise hogi, yeh bada sawal hai.
Aur haan, customers bhi kam ho rahe hain. November 2025 tak Vi ke customers 199.71 million reh gaye hain. Haan, government se AGR dues mein thodi relief mili hai aur rating agencies jaise ICRA aur CARE ne bhi upgrade kiya hai, par yeh sirf temporary sahara hai, pura solution nahi. Company par abhi bhi ₹1.94 lakh crore ka zabardast debt hai spectrum aur AGR dues ka (December 2025 tak).
Ab brokers aur analysts kya keh rahe hain? Zyadatar analysts 'Neutral' rating de rahe hain, average target price sirf ₹9.84 hai. JPMorgan ne toh 'Underweight' kar diya hai, unka kehna hai ki subscriber growth ke bina yeh rally justify nahi hoti. MarketsMojo ne toh seedha 'Sell' bol diya hai, company ki quality, negative book value aur high Debt-to-EBITDA ratio (12.49 times) ko dekhte hue.
Vi ka competitive stand toh waise hi kamzor hai. Jio aur Airtel 5G mein paisa laga rahe hain, aur Vi network aur ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) badhane mein struggle kar rahi hai. 5G launch mein deri aur customers ka chala jaana bahut badi challenges hain. Sarkar ka stake bhi badh kar 48.99% ho gaya hai debt conversion ki wajah se. Yeh decision making mein impact kar sakta hai, par sarkar Vi ko bachana chahti hai, yeh dikhata hai.
Toh short mein, Vi ko yeh naya paisa bahut soch samajh kar use karna hoga network upgrade aur customers ko wapas laane ke liye. AGR relief mil gayi hai, par itna bada debt, zabardast competition aur continuous capital spending Vi ke liye ek bada challenge hai. Company ko profit mein wapas aana hoga, jo filhaal mushkil lag raha hai.