Whalesbook
Profit Toh Badha, Par ARPU Kyun Ruka Hua Hai?
Reliance Jio ke March quarter ke numbers aa gaye hain. Company ne Rs 7,317 Crore ka net profit report kiya hai, jo pichle quarter se 2% zyada hai. Revenue bhi 2% badhkar Rs 33,381 Crore par pahunch gaya. EBITDA bhi Rs 18,113 Crore ho gaya hai aur margins thoda 54.26% tak pahunch gaye hain. Lekin asli picture ARPU mein hai. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) sirf 0.1% badhkar Rs 214 hua hai. Iska matlab hai ki jitne lakhs log Jio se jud rahe hain (ab total 524 million+ ho gaye hain), utni zyada kamai per user nahi ho pa rahi hai.
Competition Kya Keh Raha Hai?
Jio India mein sabse bada player hai 39.21% market share ke saath, aur March 2026 tak 496.33 million wireless subscribers hain. Pichhle mahine hi 3.23 million naye users jude. Wahi, Bharti Airtel ne 5.09 million users add kiye. Achhi baat yeh hai ki Jio 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) mein leader hai, jisme 8.58 million users hain, jo Airtel ke 3.74 million se kaafi zyada hai. Lekin ARPU ki baat karein toh Jio ka Rs 214, Airtel ke Rs 259 se kam hai. Vodafone Idea bhi kuch naye users jod raha hai, par unka focus kam ARPU wale connections par hai.
IPO Valuation Par Asar?
Ab sabse bada sawaal Jio Platforms ke aane wale IPO ka hai. Company $120-$170 billion ka valuation target kar rahi hai. Lekin agar ARPU Rs 214 par atka rahega, toh public kaise maanegi ki company itni value deserve karti hai? Airtel toh apne users se zyada paisa bana raha hai. Subscriber badhana achha hai, par agar per user revenue nahi badhega toh future profitability aur valuation dono par pressure aa sakta hai. Network expansion mein paisa toh lag raha hai, par uske hisab se kamai nahi badh rahi.
Aage Kya Ho Raha Hai?
Jio Platforms apna IPO May 2026 tak SEBI ke paas file kar sakti hai, aur yeh India ka sabse bada IPO ho sakta hai, jo $4-$4.5 billion tak raise kar sakta hai. Mukesh Ambani ne kaha hai ki company listing ki taraf badh rahi hai aur yeh ek "defining milestone" hoga. Analysts yahi dekh rahe hain ki kya Jio ARPU badhane ka koi clear plan dikhata hai ya nahi. Sector mein lagta hai ki tariff hikesJuly 2026 tak ho sakte hain, jisse companies ko fayda ho sakta hai.