Whalesbook
Revenue Slowdown, But Tezi Hai Andar Se!
Dekho, Indian telecom sector mein revenue growth ki raftaar ab thodi dheemi ho gayi hai. October-December 2025 quarter mein, growth sirf single-digit mein raha. Yaar, ye pichle 5 quarters se chal rahe double-digit growth ke baad ek bada change hai. Teeno bade private players - Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, aur Vodafone Idea - ka combined revenue mila kar ₹72,700 Cr hua, jo pichle saal ke comparison mein 9% zyada hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki September 2025 ke baad ye sabse slow expansion hai, kyunki mid-2024 mein jo tariff hikes hue the, uska asar ab poora ho gaya hai. Lekin asli picture isse thodi alag hai, kyunki andar ki taraf toh data usage aur 5G adoption mein abhi bhi zabardast tezi hai!
Data Ka Booming Business Aur 5G Ka Hungama
Abhi bhi logon ko mobile services ki kaafi demand hai. Pichle quarter mein lagbhag 10 million (1 Crore) naye subscribers jude hain sabhi operators ke paas. Ab 87% log 4G connection use kar rahe hain. Aur sabse zabardast baat yeh hai ki, per user data usage 24% badhkar 29.9 GB ho gaya hai. Reliance Jio toh ismein sabse aage hai, unka data usage 26% badhkar 40.7 GB per user tak pahunch gaya hai. Iski wajah hai Jio ka standalone 5G network, unlimited data offers, aur logon ka digital content aur connected devices pe badhta hua kharcha. Ye data usage badhna revenue ke liye achha hai, bas pehle jitni tez raftaar se nahi badh raha.
ARPU Mein Kisko Kitna Fayda?
Tariff hikes ke baad, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) mein bhi alag alag results aaye hain. Bharti Airtel sabse zyada fayda uthaya hai, unka ARPU 23% badhkar ₹259 ho gaya hai. Ye Reliance Jio ke ARPU ₹213.7 se 21% zyada hai. Vodafone Idea ka blended ARPU ₹186 hai, jo competitors se kaafi peeche hai. ARPU mein ye fark bahut important hai, kyunki isse pata chalta hai ki company kitna paisa dobara invest kar sakti hai aur competition mein kahan khadi hai. Airtel ka market share October 2025 tak 33.59% tha, aur Jio ka 41.36%, jo sabse zyada hai aur sabse zyada data use bhi Jio users hi karte hain.
Vodafone Idea Ka Mushkil Safar
Ab baat karte hain Vodafone Idea (Vi) ki, jinka case thoda alag aur mushkil hai. Bade capex plan ke bawajood, company lagatar subscribers kho rahi hai. December 2025 mein hi unke 9.4 lakh users kam ho gaye. Unka ARPU bhi competitors se kaafi neeche hai, sirf ₹186 ya usse kam. JPMorgan ne toh unko 'Underweight' rating dekar ₹9 ka target price diya hai, kyunki unhe network upgrade ke liye bank funding ki zaroorat hai, jo abhi mili nahi hai. Vi ka financial structure bhi kaafi kamzor hai, debt ka bojh bhi zyada hai, jo Bharti Airtel ke stable structure ke bilkul opposite hai. Haalanki Vi ne 5G experience mein kuch sudhaar dikhaya hai, par overall network aur ARPU ki wajah se woh Jio aur Airtel ko takkar nahi de pa rahi, aur uski long-term viability par sawaal bana hua hai. 5G network expand karne mein bahut paisa lagta hai, aur tough competition mein Vi ke liye sustainable profits kamana ek bada challenge hai.
Aage Kya Hoga? (Future Outlook)
Brokerage firms ka kehna hai ki abhi aur tariff hikes nahi honge, toh companies subscribers ko value-added services aur bundles dekar ARPU badhane par focus karengi. Jefferies ka maan'na hai ki FY27 mein 15% aur FY28 mein 10% tak ka tariff hike ho sakta hai. Kotak Equities bhi agle fiscal year mein around 12% hike expect kar raha hai. Goldman Sachs bhi is growth slowdown ko temporary maanta hai. Overall, sector ab volume se value-led growth ki taraf badh raha hai. Data usage ke badhne se (average 29.9 GB per user, Jio ke liye 40+ GB) market maturity dikh rahi hai, aur ARPU badhne ki poori ummeed hai. Overall market ARPU ₹200 cross kar sakta hai aur FY26 ke end tak ₹220 tak pahunch sakta hai.