Whalesbook
Toh hua kya hai ki HFCL ke paas March-April mein ₹11,525 crore ke naye orders aaye hain. Isse pehle Q3FY26 mein bhi ₹11,125 crore ka backlog tha, toh total order book ab ₹22,650 crore ke aas-paas pahunch gaya hai, jo FY25 revenue ka lagbhag 2.7 guna hai. Yeh bada order pipeline dekh kar hi stock ne is April mein 57% ka jump mara hai.
Aur haan, company sirf telecom equipment tak seemit nahi hai. Yeh defense sector mein bhi ghus rahe hain! Umeed hai ki FY27 tak defense se ₹400-500 crore aur FY28 tak ₹1,000 crore se zyada ka revenue aayega. Iske liye ₹25 crore mein Spiral EHL ko bhi acquire kiya hai. India ka defense sector badh raha hai, toh HFCL bhi iska fayda uthana chahta hai.
Waise bhi, India ka telecom sector toh waise hi full speed mein hai. 5G rollouts, data ka usage badhna – sab chal raha hai. Ye sector 2025 mein ₹4.44 lakh crore ka tha aur 2030 tak ₹6.96 lakh crore tak pahunchne ka target hai. HFCL ke products, jaise optical fiber cables, ki demand toh waise hi high rehne wali hai.
Ab aate hain asli mudde par – valuation! Bhai, iska trailing P/E ratio 250x se bhi upar, kuch jagah toh 300x ke paar jaa raha hai! Yeh toh Avantel (jo 180x-250x par hai) se bhi bahut zyada hai. Sterlite Technologies ke ratios toh kabhi kabhi hazaron mein chale jaate hain, aur Railtel ya Affle 3i jaise competitors 45-55x par hain. Haan, forward P/E 31x ke aas-paas hai, par yeh current P/E batata hai ki market bahut zyada future earnings growth expect kar raha hai.
Isi high valuation ki wajah se risk bhi bada hai. Agar company ne earnings growth maintain nahi kiya ya execution mein gadbad hui toh stock gir sakta hai. Profit margins par bhi pressure aa sakta hai, khaas kar jab defense segment explore kar rahe hain. Foreign investors (FIIs) bhi kabhi bhi outflow kar sakte hain. Aur agar company ne expectations poori nahi ki, toh kuch analysts ₹75 ka bear case target bhi de rahe hain.
Phir bhi, kuch experts positive hain. Geojit ne ₹150 ka target diya hai, matlab abhi ke price se 40% tak ka upside. Kuch aur analysts ₹142 se ₹163 ka target de rahe hain. Sabki nazar ab April 30, 2026 ko aane wale Q4 FY26 results par hai. Estimate hai ki revenue ₹1,050 crore aur profit ₹42 crore aa sakta hai. Management kya bolti hai FY27 ke liye, woh dekhna important hoga.