Whalesbook
So, sabse pehle toh ye jo profit girne ki baat hai na, iske peeche asal reason hai ek ₹3,161 Crore ka one-time regulatory charge. Agar yeh charge na hota, toh company ka underlying profit lagbhag ₹10,486 Crore hota. Toh, matlab company andar se toh strong chal rahi hai, bas yeh govt. aur regulatory cheezein thoda disturb kar rahi hain.
Waise, Q4 results aane ke baad na, share price 3.5% upar chala gaya 14th May ko. Aur iski ek badi wajah hai yeh ₹28,200 Crore wala share-swap deal. Isse Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa mein apna stake aur badha raha hai, jo ki 16.31% hai. Brokers ko lagta hai ki yeh deal company ke liye faydemand (accretive) rahega aur earnings mein thoda boost dega.
Ab ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) ki baat karein toh India mein yeh ₹257 par pahunch gaya hai, jo 4.9% zyada hai last year se. Lekin, ek choti si worrying baat yeh hai ki pichhle teen mahine mein yeh 0.8% kam hua hai. Iska reason bataya ja raha hai seasonality aur Middle East mein jo conflicts chal rahe hain, uski wajah se international roaming revenue kam hona. Aur haan, TRAI bhi ab voice calls aur SMS ke rates change karne par soch raha hai, toh isse ARPU par thoda pressure aa sakta hai.
Bade players mein, Reliance Jio ka bhi result aaya hai, unka PAT 13% badh kar ₹7,935 Crore hua hai, revenue ₹44,928 Crore. Vodafone Idea abhi bhi mushkil mein hai, aur unke liye aage bhi challenges dikh rahe hain. India ka telecom sector overall grow kar raha hai, khas kar 5G aur FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) ki wajah se.
Par haan, kuch cheezein hain jinki taraf dhyan dena chahiye. Airtel ka valuation abhi thoda high lag raha hai. Aur company lagataar 5G, fiber, aur data centers mein ₹16,066 Crore kharch kar rahi hai, toh isse free cash flow par thoda pressure rahega. Woh ARPU ka sequential dip bhi aur TRAI ke potential rules bhi risks hain.
Phir bhi, overall brokers kaafi positive hain. Jefferies ne target ₹2,350 kar diya hai, 'buy' bol rahe hain. Morgan Stanley aur JPMorgan ne bhi 'overweight' rating maintain ki hai aur targets ₹2,450 aur ₹2,300 diye hain. Management bhi digital infrastructure mein investment aur premiumization par focus kar raha hai, aur bol rahe hain ki future mein tariff hikes zaroori hain.