Whalesbook
Valuation ka funda kya hai?
TBO Tek ka revenue 83% badh kar ₹814 Crore ho gaya hai, lagta hai company speed mein hai. Par jab profit dekha, toh sirf 2% badh kar ₹60.1 Crore hua hai. Ye dikhata hai ki company abhi bade hone par zyada dhyan de rahi hai, profit kamane par nahi. Investors abhi 53x ke P/E ratio par stock khareed rahe hain, umeed hai ki baad mein jab acquisitions ka integration khatam hoga, toh margins sudhrenge.
Growth ki asal keemat?
Revenue mein yeh tezi principalmente hotels aur usse related services se aayi hai, jisme 90% ka jump dikha hai. Ab yeh segment total revenue ka 83% hai. Lekin is growth ka paisa bhi laga hai. EBITDA margin 18.2% se gir kar 14.5% ho gaya hai. Finance cost 170% aur depreciation 115% badh gaya hai. Booking Holdings jaise competitors ke comparison mein TBO Tek ka RoCE kamzor lag raha hai. Classic Vacations ko integrate karne ke chakkar mein cash flow par bhi pressure aaya hai, OCF toh -₹20.8 Crore ho gaya hai full fiscal year ke liye.
Bear case: Kya gadbad hai?
Ek taraf market socho ye consolidate ho raha hai, lekin kuch risks bhi hain. Ek toh yeh hai ki senior management, jaise Deepak Khanna, ne resign kiya hai. Ye company ke liye ek critical phase mein theek nahi hai. Industry mein bhi zabardast competition hai aur switching costs kam hain. Bade travel platforms ke opposite, TBO Tek geopolitical issues aur currency fluctuations se zyada affected ho sakti hai. Kai research firms 'Sell' rating de rahe hain kyunki P/B ratio high hai aur kab margins recover honge, yeh pata nahi.
Aage kya hoga?
Management ka kehna hai ki Classic Vacations ka integration Q3 FY27 tak khatam ho jayega, jisse margins stable ho sakte hain. Analysts ka target ₹1,650 hai, lekin TBO Tek ko hotel bookings mein momentum maintain karna hoga aur kharch kam karna hoga. Abhi sabki nazar yeh dekhne par hai ki kya company debt-funded acquisitions se organic, margin-accretive growth ki taraf badhegi, ya phir fragmented B2B travel space mein competitive rehne ke liye profit sacrifice karti rahegi.