Whalesbook
Toh bhai log, JM Financial ne India ke IT sector ke liye thoda alert jari kiya hai. Unko lagta hai ki FY27 mein revenue growth slow rahega. Iska main reason hai AI ki wajah se prices ka kam hona (AI deflation) aur overall demand ka thoda dheema padna.
Abhi yeh log top 10 Indian IT companies ke liye revenue growth ka estimate kam karke 3% kar diya hai pehle wale 4% se. Jab tak AI ka price effect kam nahi hota aur FY27 ki growth thoda clear nahi hoti, tab tak sector mein bada jump aana mushkil hai. Aapko pata hi hai, Nifty IT index toh already Nifty 50 se 13% piche chal raha hai is saal.
Mid-Tier IT Companies Ka Zor?
Par yahan ek twist hai! JM Financial ko lagta hai ki mid-tier IT companies bade companies se achha perform karegi. March 2026 tak, mid-tier aur large-cap IT firms ke valuation mein lagbhag 60% ka gap aa gaya hai, jo pichhle mahine 39% tha. Ye dikhata hai ki choti companies ne haal hi mein acha kaam kiya hai. Ye gap average 31% se kaafi zyada hai.
Aur ek interesting baat, mid-tier IT firms ke FY27 ke EBIT estimates 5.9% badh gaye hain April se, jabki bade companies ke liye ye sirf 0.8% badha hai. Pichhle 3 mahine mein Indian Rupee ke girne (5.7%) se bhi isme help mili hai. Mid-tier companies apne cash flows bhi sudhaar rahi hain. Mphasis ka target hai 80% operating cash flow to PAT conversion aur Coforge ka target hai FY27 ke liye 100% free cash flow to PAT.
Kon Hai Favorite?
JM Financial ne kuch favorite stocks bhi bataye hain. Bade companies mein Infosys unka top pick hai. Aur mid-tier mein, Mphasis ko sabse upar rakha hai. Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) category mein Sagility bhi ek acha option hai.
Bade Indian IT companies ke liye order book growth FY26 mein theek-thak rahi FY25 ke comparison mein. Lekin Cognizant ke comments par nazar rakhni hogi ki deal durations lambe ho rahe hain. Financial services sector abhi bhi stable hai aur banks ki taraf se technology spending achhi hai, jo ek positive sign hai.
ER&D Aur BPO Ka Scene
Engineering Research and Development (ER&D) companies ne FY26 ke Q4 mein mixed results diye hain. Tata Technologies ne FY27 mein double-digit growth dikhaya hai, thanks to new vehicle deals. Lekin KPIT Technologies ne FY27 ke liye koi specific revenue guidance nahi di hai, unko pehle half mein dheemi growth ki ummeed hai.
BPO segment mein, FY27 ke liye guidance FY26 se thodi kam hai, par baaki IT segments se better hai. Sagility FY27 mein low double-digit growth expect kar raha hai, jo FY26 ke 15% se thoda kam hai. Firstsource FY27 mein 8-11% organic growth predict kar raha hai, aur acquisitions se lagbhag 2% aur milne ki ummeed hai.
Margin Aur Valuation Ka Kya?
Analysts ko pehle se hi margin pressure ki ummeed thi kyuki competition zyada hai aur clients AI se productivity gain expect kar rahe hain. Lekin abhi Indian Rupee ke girne se margins ko thoda support milega. Wages aur hiring plans par bhi nazar rakho.
Nifty IT index abhi apne forward earnings ka 17 times par trade kar raha hai, jabki global IT services companies 11 times par hain. Ye apne pre-pandemic average 18 times se kam hai. Ye Nifty 50 se bhi 10% discount par hai. Mid-tier IT firms 24 times, ER&D service providers 25 times, aur BPO companies 21 times par trade kar rahe hain.