Whalesbook
Aisa Kya Hua Ki Acche Results Ke Baad Bhi Stock Gira?
TCS ke Chairman N Chandrasekaran ne kaha hai ki AI ab companies ke liye sirf ek tech layer nahi, balki 'intelligence ka infrastructure' ban gaya hai. Company ne apne 'Human AI' model se saal ka $2.3 billion revenue generate kiya hai. March quarter (Q4 FY26) mein net profit 29% sequential growth ke saath ₹13,720 crore aur revenue 5.5% badhkar ₹70,698 crore raha, jo analysts ke expectations ke hisab se tha. Company ne ₹31 per share ka final dividend bhi announce kiya hai. Is quarter mein $12 billion ke bade deals bhi mile hain, jo client ki strong demand dikhate hain.
Fir Bhi Stock 13% Kaise Gira?
Itne acche numbers aur AI focus ke baad bhi, TCS ka stock April mein results aane ke baad se lagbhag 13% gir chuka hai, mid-May 2026 tak ₹2,270 ke aas paas trade ho raha tha. Ye girawat isliye hui kyunki company ne FY26 mein poore saal ka dollar revenue 2.4% saal-dar-saal kam hone ki baat kahi hai. Ye TCS ke listing ke baad pehli baar hai jab annual revenue mein kami aayi hai. Market ko lagta hai ki AI ke wajah se traditional services se hone wali earning kam ho sakti hai, aur isi wajah se investors chintit hain.
Analysts Aur Valuation Ka Kya Kehna Hai?
TCS ka trailing 12-month P/E ratio ab 16.5x hai, jo company ke historical average se kam hai. Dusre IT stocks jaise Infosys ka P/E 16.4x aur Wipro ka 15.5x (5-year low) chal raha hai. Global company Accenture, jiske paas 85,000 AI professionals hain, uska P/E 13x ke aas paas hai.
Indian IT sector mein 10.6% growth expected hai, lekin analysts ka maanana hai ki AI ki wajah se traditional IT services mein agle kuch saalon mein 2-3% revenue kam ho sakta hai. Nifty IT index bhi March 2026 tak 25% gir gaya tha AI disruption ke dar se.
TCS Ke Liye Agle Challenges Kya Hain?
AI ke saath hi TCS ko kuch challenges face karne pad rahe hain. Sabse badi chinta AI se hone wali productivity gains hai jo billing rates ko kam kar rahi hain. Jefferies ka kehna hai ki FY29 tak EPS CAGR 5.5% tak hi seemit reh sakta hai. Competition bhi bahut tez hai; Citi ne toh Infosys aur HCL Tech ko TCS se behtar mana hai. BFSI sector mein bhi slow growth dikh rahi hai, jo TCS ke liye future revenue ka ek bada hissa hai.
Analyst Views Still Divided
Market mein negative sentiment ke bawajood, analysts ke views alag-alag hain. Kuch brokerages TCS ko lekar positive hain aur target ₹3,350-₹4,500 tak de rahe hain. Lekin kai analysts abhi bhi cautious hain. Jefferies ne 'Underperform' rating di hai aur target ₹2,275 rakha hai. Citi ne 'Sell' rating ke saath target ₹2,250 diya hai. Average target ₹2,946 ke aas paas hai, lekin kuch analysts ko ₹2,600 tak ka downside bhi dikh raha hai.