AI Ka Asar: Yeh Sabse Bada Dar Kyu Hai?
AI wala mamla Y2K ya cloud revolution jaisa nahi hai. Yeh IT services ke core business models ko seedha impact kar sakta hai. Pehle toh Indian IT companies disruptors thi, ab AI ke zamane mein khud disruption ka saamna kar rahi hain.
Global players jaise ServiceNow 30% aur Salesforce 27% gir chuke hain AI fears ke chalte. Naye AI tools jaise Anthropic ka Claude Cowork ye dar badha rahe hain ki outsourced kaam bhi automate ho sakta hai, jo Indian IT sector ki revenue ka bada hissa hai.
Valuation Par Pressure: Share Aur Market Cap Mein Giraawat
Aaj, February 12, 2026 ko, TCS ka share 4.81% gir kar ₹2,769.50 par aa gaya, jo uska 52-week low hai. Is wajah se, market cap lagbhag ₹10.02 lakh crore ho gaya hai.
Is valuation drop ke karan, TCS ab India ki top listed companies mein State Bank of India (SBI) jo lagbhag ₹10.92 lakh crore par hai, aur ICICI Bank se peeche chala gaya hai. Nifty IT index bhi 3.96% gira, aur is saal ab tak 11.4% tak gir chuka hai. Sirf 7 din mein Nifty IT ~13% slide ho chuka hai.
TCS ka P/E ratio 21.5-22.7 ke aas paas hai, jo industry average 25.3 se kam hai. Competitors jaise Infosys ka P/E 20.6-22.6 aur HCLTech ka 24.0-25.5 hai.
Historical Context Aur Sector Rotation
Yeh pehli baar hai jab TCS ka market cap December 2020 ke baad ₹10 lakh crore se neeche gaya hai. Pichle saal mein TCS ka return -29.41% raha hai, jabki Sensex 10.07% badha hai. Pichle saal February 2025 mein TCS ₹3,932.30 par trade ho raha tha, aur uska 52-week high ₹4,161 tha. Yeh dikhata hai ki paisa ab IT sector se nikal kar banking jaise mazboot sectors mein ja raha hai.
Bear Case: Kya AI Ek Structural Threat Hai?
AI sirf ek upgrade nahi, balki core service lines ko permanently badalne wala hai. TCS jaisi companies jahan bade workforce par depend karta tha, wahan AI automation se kaam kam ho sakta hai aur revenue par asar pad sakta hai. AI-driven revenue streams abhi traditional business ke pressure ko compensate karne ke liye sufficient nahi lag rahe hain.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Halanki kuch analysts abhi bhi TCS ke AI positioning ko lekar cautiously positive hain. January 2026 tak kai analysts ne 'buy' rating di thi. Lekin, February 12, 2026 ke latest consensus price targets lagbhag ₹2,850 ke aas paas hain. Aage TCS aur baaki companies ko yeh dikhana hoga ki AI unke liye growth ka engine banta hai, na ki ek bada threat.