Whalesbook
Swiggy Ka Ek Side Mast, Doosra Thoda Slow?
Swiggy ke andar hi do alag kahaniyan chal rahi hain. Ek taraf, unka original food delivery business ekdum josh mein hai aur profit bhi sudhar raha hai. Par dusri taraf, yeh jo naya Instamart wala quick commerce hai, usme growth thodi dheemi pad gayi hai aur profit ke liye mushkil ho rahi hai.
Food Delivery Ki Toofani Tezi!
Swiggy ke food delivery business ne pichhle 4 saal ka sabse strong performance dikhaya hai. Gross Order Value (GOV) 22.6% jump karke ₹9,005 crore tak pahunch gaya, jo company ke forecast se bhi zyada hai. Monthly transacting users (MTUs) bhi 21% badh kar 1.83 crore ho gaye. Is segment ka adjusted EBITDA margin 3.3% ho gaya hai, matlab saal bhar ka adjusted EBITDA ₹1,000 crore cross kar gaya hai. Aur FY26 mein 'Out of Home' (OOH) segment bhi pehli baar profitable hua hai.
Instamart Mein Competition Ka Pressure?
Instamart ka GOV toh 68.8% badha hai, ₹7,881 crore tak pahuncha hai, lekin yeh growth pichhle quarter se thoda slow hai. Company ne is quarter mein sirf 7 dark stores khule hain, total ab 1,143 ho gaye hain 129 cities mein. Yeh pace competitors jaise Blinkit ke saamne kaafi slow hai, jinhone 216 stores badhaye. Is wajah se, Instamart ka market share 25% hai, peeche hai Blinkit (46%) aur Zepto (29%) se. Haalanki Average Order Value (AOV) 32.8% badh kar ₹700 ho gaya hai, par profitabilty abhi bhi ek bada challenge hai.
Quick Commerce Ka Asli Baap Kaun?
Quick commerce market mein zabardast competition chal raha hai. Blinkit, Zomato ka hissa, 46% market share ke saath aage hai, uske baad Zepto (29%) aur Swiggy Instamart (25%). Blinkit ne FY25 mein 424 million orders process kiye, Instamart ke 286 million ke muqable. Blinkit ka AOV bhi zyada hai, aur har order par loss bhi ₹10 ke aas-paas hai, jabki Instamart ka loss ₹100 ke kareeb hai. Blinkit toh 2,157 stores tak pahunchne ka plan bana raha hai, Swiggy se kaafi zyada.
Analysts Kya Soch Rahe Hain?
Analysts ki rai alag-alag hai. Kuch ne price correction ke baad Neutral kiya hai, toh kuch Buy rating ke saath target price thoda kam kar rahe hain. Average target ₹400-₹527 ke aas-paas hai, lekin quick commerce ke profitabilty issues ki wajah se kuch analysts ko stock sideways jane ka bhi dar hai. Kuch reports toh 'HOLD' bhi bol rahi hain.
Instamart Profit Tak Kaise Pahunchega?
Instamart ke liye profit tak pahunchna ek mushkil race hai. Agarche iska adjusted EBITDA margin sudhra hai, segment mein abhi bhi ₹858 crore ka loss hai aur paise kharch ho rahe hain. Blinkit jaise competitors toh bahut aggressive hain aur profit ka rasta saaf dikha rahe hain. Kam take rate aur zyada loss per order ke saath, Instamart ki competition mein tikne ki capacity par sawal hai. Quick commerce mein dark stores, logistics aur discounts par bahut paisa lagta hai. Food delivery profitable zaroor hai, par FY26 mein company ka overall loss 33% badh kar ₹4,154 crore ho gaya hai.
Future Ke Targets Aur Profit Ka Andaaza
Swiggy ka aim hai food delivery mein 18-20% growth maintain karna. Medium term mein ₹1 lakh crore GOV aur 3-4% EBITDA margin ka target hai. Kuch analysts ko lagta hai ki quick commerce Q1FY27 tak contribution margin par breakeven ho sakta hai, par baaki log abhi bhi cautious hain. Quick commerce market 2030 tak $35 billion ka ho sakta hai. Swiggy bhi bada hissa chahta hai, par uske liye unit economics theek karni padegi. FY27 mein Capex kam hone ki ummeed hai.