Whalesbook
OpenAI ki Valuation ne SoftBank ki jeb bhari
SoftBank Group toh bhai, lagataar profit mein chal raha hai. Pichle quarter mein unhone 248.6 billion yen ($1.62 billion) ka Net Profit dikhaya hai. Pichle saal isi samay loss tha, 369 billion yen ka, toh yeh ekdum se palta hua dikh raha hai. Asal mein, yeh sab thanks to OpenAI, jismein SoftBank ne $30 billion se zyada invest kiya hai aur unka lagbhag 11% stake hai. December end tak, is investment par unko $19.8 billion ka fayda dikh raha tha. Company ke shares bhi 2.4% upar the results aane se pehle. Lekin yeh profit mostly non-cash valuation adjustment hai, woh bhi ek aise sector mein jahan competition bohot hai.
AI ke liye Debt badhaya?
Ab AI mein entry aur mazboot karne ke liye, SoftBank ne apna loan-to-value ratio badha diya hai. Unhone Arm Holdings shares par loan $20 billion kar diya hai (pehla $13.5 billion tha). Aur SoftBank Corp. par bhi borrowing 1.2 trillion yen ho gayi hai (pehla 800 billion yen thi). Isse unka loan-to-value ratio 20.6% ho gaya hai December tak, jo pehle 16.5% tha. Cash reserves kam hokar 3.8 trillion yen reh gaye hain. Yeh sab isliye kar rahe hain taaki OpenAI mein jo unki badi commitment hai, woh poori ho sake. Reports hain ki OpenAI $830 billion valuation par $100 billion aur raise karne ki soch raha hai. Ab toh SoftBank, OpenAI ka public proxy ban gaya hai, aur investors uski balance sheet ko bohot closely dekh rahe hain.
Kya bolte hain Analysts?
SoftBank ka P/E ratio abhi 7.9x ke aas paas hai, aur market cap lagbhag ¥27.4 trillion hai. Competitors ke comparison mein yeh theek lagta hai, par SoftBank ka profit bohot volatile hai, unke Vision Fund investments par depend karta hai. CEO Masayoshi Son ka style hi hai concentrated, high-stakes bets lagana, aur OpenAI uska sabse bada example hai. Kai bada companies jaise Google bhi AI mein paisa laga rahi hain, par SoftBank ka seedha public market play alag hai. AI models ko train karne mein paisa bohot lagta hai, toh SoftBank ko constantly capital chahiye, jiske liye unhone Nvidia aur T-Mobile ke stakes bhi beche hain. Yeh strategy tabhi kaam karegi jab OpenAI apna lead maintain rakhe aur apni valuation ko justify kar paaye, jo ki mushkil ho sakta hai.
Risk Factor: Single Point of Failure
SoftBank ka profit ab basically OpenAI ke valuation par atka hua hai. Yeh ek hi point hai jahan sab kuch fail ho sakta hai. Aur debt badhne se risk bhi badh jaata hai. Analysts ko yeh bhi chinta hai ki Arm Holdings ke shares par itna bada loan hai, agar Arm ka share price gira toh SoftBank ke liye badi problem ho sakti hai. OpenAI ko bhi bade players se competition mil raha hai, jahan Alphabet aur Amazon jaise log hain. AI development mein lagne wala paisa bohot zyada hai, isliye OpenAI ko bhi continuous funding chahiye, aur iska pressure SoftBank par bhi aata hai. Yaad rakho, SoftBank ne dot-com bubble ke time bhi bohot losses dekhe hain, toh yeh aggressive strategy risky hai. Halanki unka current loan-to-value ratio unke limit se kam hai, par woh badh raha hai.