Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo, Qualcomm ke shares ne sabko surprise kar diya! After-hours mein stock 15% tak bhaga hai. Laga ki earnings kaafi tagdi hongi, par asal mein scene thoda different hai. Ye tezi aayi hai AI par investors ke zabardast bharose aur smartphone market ke jaldi theek hone ki umeed se. Company ne Q3 ke liye revenue guidance thoda miss kar diya tha, par CEO ne future ke liye jo plans bataye hain, usne logon ka dil jeet liya.
Abhi kya hua? Q3 ke liye revenue ki forecast thi $9.2 billion se $10 billion ke beech, jo Wall Street ke $10.18 billion ke estimate se thoda kam tha. Waise hi, EPS (Earnings Per Share) ka forecast bhi $2.10 se $2.30 tha, jo expectations se neeche tha. Ye sab memory supply ki problems ki wajah se ho raha hai, jisse handset makers apne orders kam rakh rahe hain. Unhone bataya ki handset revenue mein 13% ka drop aaya tha, mostly China market mein weakness ke karan. Umeed hai ki Chinese customers se revenue ab iss quarter mein bottom out karega aur phir badhega.
Par bhaiyo, Qualcomm sirf smartphone tak seemit nahi hai. Wo AI aur data center chip market mein bhi zabardast entry maar rahe hain. Unke CEOs ne kaha hai ki woh CPUs, inference accelerators aur custom chips bana rahe hain. $2.4 billion mein AlphaWave ko khareedne se unhe AI ke liye zaroori high-speed connectivity bhi mil gayi hai. Unka aim hai ki AI inference ke liye efficient aur cost-effective chips banayein. Ek bade cloud provider toh issi saal se Qualcomm ke chips use karna start karega, jo AI infrastructure mein ek badi baat hai.
Abhi scene tough hai, Qualcomm ka muqabla NVIDIA jaise giants se hai, jinka operating margin 58.8% hai, jabki Qualcomm ka 27.2% hai. Saath mein AMD, Intel, Broadcom bhi hain. Smartphone side par MediaTek aur Apple/Samsung ke khud ke chips bhi challenge hain. Semiconductor market 2026 tak $975 billion se zyada ka ho sakta hai, mostly AI demand ke karan, par memory shortage 2027 tak chal sakti hai.
Analysts ka opinion mila-jula hai. Kuch log 'Hold' keh rahe hain, kuch 'Cautious Buy'. Barclays ne 'Underweight' rating aur $130.00 ka target diya hai, jabki Deep Value Investing ne AI catalysts ko dekh kar 'Cautious Buy' upgrade kiya hai. Generally, sab $158-$169 ke aas-paas target price dekh rahe hain, matlab short term mein zyada bada jump shayad na ho.
Lekin tension wali baat bhi hai. Apple shayad 2027 tak apne khud ke modems banaye, jis se Qualcomm ka business affect ho sakta hai. China se related geopolitical risks bhi hain. Data center mein entry achhi hai, par competition zabardast hai aur R&D mein paisa lagana padega. Memory shortage ki wajah se guidance miss hone ka risk abhi bhi hai.
Par Qualcomm rukne wala nahi hai. Automotive mein unki revenues $1.33 billion ho gayi hain aur 2026 tak $6 billion se upar jaane ka target hai. IoT segment bhi badh raha hai. Aur shareholders ko khush karne ke liye $20 billion ka share buyback program bhi announce kiya hai. June 24 ko investor day hai, jahan aur details milenge.