Whalesbook
US Approval Mili, Par Beijing Ne Laga Di Rok!
Dekho, May 14, 2026 ko khabar aayi thi ki US Commerce Department ne Nvidia ke H200 AI accelerators ko China ki top companies jaise Alibaba, Tencent, aur ByteDance ke liye approve kar diya hai. Har company 75,000 chips tak le sakti thi, aur distributors jaise Lenovo, Foxconn bhi list mein the. But, surprise! Ek bhi chip abhi tak China pahunchi nahi.
Iska reason pata hai kya hai? Beijing ne apni companies ko guidance di hai ki woh orders rok dein aur apne khud ke AI chip development par zyada focus karein. Aur haan, Trump time ka ek purana rule bhi hai jisme 25% revenue share aur chips ka US territory se guzarana compulsory hai, jisse Beijing ko security concerns hain.
Nvidia ka stock phir bhi May 13, 2026 ko 2.29% badh kar $225.83 par close hua. High trading volume bata raha tha ki investors AI demand par nazar rakhe hue hain, despite yeh geopolitical tensions.
As of May 2026, Nvidia ka market cap tha around $5.49 trillion, aur P/E ratio 41.28 se 46.09 ke beech tha.
China Ka Apna AI Powerhouse Banane Ka Plan
Nvidia pehle China ke advanced chip market mein almost dominate karta tha, lagbhag 95% share aur company ki total revenue ka 13% China se aata tha. Par ab yeh position risky lag rahi hai. China ka goal hai 'independent and controllable' AI capabilities develop karna, specially semiconductor industry mein.
Hamare desh mein bhi Huawei jaise companies apne AI chips bana rahi hain. Jaise unka Ascend 950 series. Ye chips Nvidia ke purane H100 chip ke performance ko compete karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur naye H200 ko bhi challenge denge.
Global semiconductor market 2026 tak $1.3 trillion ko cross karne wala hai, aur AI chips iska 30% hissa hongi. Lekin yeh growth ab divide ho rahi hai.
Pehle bhi trade tensions se Nvidia affect hua hai. Jaise May 2019 mein stock 2.5% gira tha.
Aur April 2025 mein, China ke liye banaye gaye H20 chip par US restrictions ke baad Nvidia ko $4.5 billion ka charge book karna pada tha.
Nvidia Ke Liye Badhte Risks
Ab yeh current situation Nvidia ke liye kafi risky hai. Beijing ka domestic chips par focus karna Nvidia ke market share ko permanent decrease kar sakta hai. US approval ke baad bhi, rules jaise 'sufficient security procedures' prove karna, military use ko ban karna, aur 25% revenue share jaise hurdles hain.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ne kaha hai ki woh '100% out of China' hain right now. Iska matlab hai market share 95% se zero ho gaya hai.
Is move se current revenue par toh impact padega hi, saath hi Huawei jaise competitors ko long-term advantage mil jayega.
US lawmakers bhi worried hain ki export controls ko ease karne se Beijing ki AI aur military ambitions boost ho sakti hain.
Nvidia ka stock toh baaki jagah AI demand ki wajah se stable hai, but China market ka loss, jo saal mein $50 billion tak ka ho sakta hai, ek bada opportunity cost hai.
Nvidia Ka Future Outlook
Analysts abhi bhi Nvidia ko lekar positive hain, aur average price target $277.32 hai. Kai firms ne price targets badhaye hain kyuki AI demand strong hai aur AI data center market bhi bada hone wala hai.
Nvidia ki Q1 FY2027 earnings mein bhi substantial growth ki ummeed hai. Investors ab companies ke comments on China, potential geopolitical shifts, aur domestic Chinese AI development par nazar rakhenge.
Company ab India aur Middle East jaise emerging markets mein bhi invest kar rahi hai, apna strategy China se shift karte hue.