Whalesbook
Yaar, Mphasis ne FY26 ke Q4 mein numbers mein dhamaka kiya hai.
AI se related deals ne revenue ko seedha 14.4% upar pahuncha diya, total ₹4,242.67 crore par. Profit bhi 14.1% badh kar ₹509.64 crore ho gaya. Is quarter mein AI deals kaafi strong rahi hain, pipeline ka 69% aur FY26 ke total contract value (TCV) wins ka 60% INHI deals se aaya hai, jo total $2.1 billion pakadta hai. Simple words mein, company ka growth five-year average se kaafi tagda raha hai.
Aur haan, operations bhi smooth chal rahe hain, EBIT margin thoda sa 15.2% se 15.4% ho gaya. Board ne shareholders ke liye ₹62 per share ka final dividend bhi recommend kiya hai FY26 ke liye.
Ab baat karte hain Valuation ki. Mphasis ka stock dekhne mein thoda mehenga lag raha hai, compared to bade players jaise TCS, Infosys, aur Wipro. Mphasis ka TTM P/E ratio around 23-24x hai, jabki TCS 17x, Infosys 16x, aur Wipro 14.43x par trade ho rahe hain. Ye comparison thoda tension wala hai, especially jab Mphasis ka historical growth in bade players se kam raha hai.
Sabse bada 'tension' jo poore IT sector ko sata raha hai, woh hai 'AI Deflation'. Iska matlab hai ki AI ki wajah se jo efficiency badhti hai na, usse companies clients ko kam price offer kar sakti hain. Experts keh rahe hain ki isse next few years mein revenue 2-3% tak kam ho sakta hai. Toh, AI se naye deals mil rahe hain, par purani services pe kam price milne se overall profit margin par pressure aa sakta hai.
Iske alawa bhi kuch risks hain, jaise bade AI projects ko execute karna mushkil ho sakta hai aur competition bahut hai, jisse margins par aur pressure. Analyst bhi ismein divide hain. Kai firms jaise Motilal Oswal, Choice, Nuvama 'Buy' ya 'Outperform' rating de rahe hain, par price targets alag alag hain. Kuch reports 'Hold' rating ki taraf ishara kar rahi hain, aur Nomura ka 'Neutral' rating bhi yehi dikhata hai ki sab log ek baat par agree nahi kar rahe.
Aage chal kar, FY26 se FY29 tak revenue aur profit mein low double-digit growth expect hai. AI aur NeoIP platform Mphasis ki strengths hain, par global economy aur AI deflation ka risk bana rahega. Stock price bhi around ₹2,276.70 chal raha hai, jo 200-day moving average se neeche hai, matlab market filhal thoda cautious hai. Management mein Nitin Rakesh ko next 5 saal ke liye CEO wapas bana diya gaya hai, toh continuity toh hai.