Chalo, pehle positive side dekhte hain. Motilal Oswal jaise brokers Mphasis ko lekar kaafi bullish hain. Unka kehna hai ki Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) sector mein company ki pakad mazboot hai, aur yeh sector abhi bhi kaafi stable lag raha hai. Plus, inka deal pipeline (TCV wins) bhi dikh raha hai, aur bade clients ke saath issues bhi solve ho gaye hain. So, aage aane wale quarters mein revenue increase hone ki full umeed hai.
Motilal Oswal ke hisab se, USD revenue mein lagbhag 10.8% ka CAGR aur INR profit mein 14% ka CAGR dikh sakta hai FY25 se FY28 tak. Ye sab dekh kar unhone 'Buy' rating ke saath ₹3,400 ka target price diya hai, jo ki 26 times FY28 earnings par based hai. BFSI sector se demand bhi badh rahi hai.
Ab aati hai worrying baat. Mphasis ka trailing P/E ratio lagbhag 25.11x hai. Agar isse TCS (jo 20.27x par hai) ya Infosys (jo 19.59x par hai) jaise competitors se compare karein, toh Mphasis thoda expensive lag sakta hai. HCL Tech bhi 23.68x par hai. Haan, Mphasis ka TTM revenue ₹153.5 billion hai, lekin pichhle saal ka sales growth thoda kam hua hai.
Iska matlab, stock overall market (BSE500 jo 5.79% badha) ke muqable 4.23% gir gaya hai. Technicals bhi bol rahe hain ki stock neeche ja raha hai, kuch moving averages ke below trade kar raha hai.
Aur sabse bada darr hai AI ka. Experts bol rahe hain ki agar AI ne market mein disruption kiya, toh Mphasis jaise companies ki valuation 65% tak gir sakti hai, worst case mein. Iss wajah se, kuch analysts ka rating 'Sell' bhi hai, jaise Ambit Capital ka target ₹2,430 hai. Mphasis ka PEG ratio bhi 2.8 hai, jo batata hai ki growth expectations stock price ke hisab se thode zyada ho sakte hain.
Toh overall picture ye hai: long term mein Motilal Oswal jaisey firms ko Mphasis se growth ki umeed hai (₹3,400 ka target), lekin short-to-medium term mein AI ka impact, valuation aur current bearish technicals stock ko rok sakte hain. Kuch analysts Rs 3,170 se Rs 3,250 ka target bhi de rahe hain, lekin sabko soch samajh kar decide karna hoga.