Whalesbook
JP Morgan ne diya 'Overweight' Call!
Meesho ke shares mein aaj toofani tezi aayi hai, lagbhag 12% badh gaye hain aur ₹193.50 ke aas paas trade ho rahe hain. Ye sab JP Morgan ki report ke baad hua, jismein unhone stock ko 'Overweight' bola hai aur ₹215 ka price target set kiya hai. Ye target pichle din ke close ₹172.68 se 20% se zyada ka upside dikhata hai. JP Morgan ne Meesho ko ek 'discovery-led marketplace' bataya hai, jisko vo advertising network jaisa samajhte hain, aur India ke retail challenges ke liye banaya gaya hai.
Growth ka potential vs. Competition ka darr
JP Morgan ko lagta hai ki Meesho ka EBITDA fiscal years 2028 se 2030 tak 140% CAGR se badhega, jo ki other internet peers ke average 70% growth se kaafi zyada hai. Valuation 35 times FY30 EBITDA par hai. Unka kehna hai ki Meesho ka Net Merchandise Value (NMV) user growth se zyada badhega, specially advertising revenue se, jo abhi sirf 1.8% fees kama raha hai globally 3.7% ke muqable. Lekin bhai, competition bhi kam nahi hai. Flipkart (40-45% market share) aur Amazon India (30-32%) bhi bahut bade players hain. E-commerce market badh toh raha hai, par Meesho ko share badhana aur sustainable profit kamana hai.
Kya hain Risks? Losses aur Logistics ka chakkar
Sahi hai, analyst positive hain, par risks bhi bade hain. Meesho ka history dekho toh bade net losses hain. Q3 FY26 mein net loss 13 guna badh kar ₹491 crore ho gaya, jismein Valmo logistics aur customer acquisition costs kaafi the. Haalanki, ek quarter mein ₹733.53 crore ka profit bhi dikhaya tha, par FY25 mein negative ROE (-264%) aur ROCE (-73.96%) batata hai ki consistent profitability mushkil hai. JP Morgan ko lagta hai ki logistics costs baad mein theek ho jayegi aur FY27 tak Valmo 62% orders handle karega. Par India mein logistics chalana aasan nahi, costs volatile ho sakti hain. Profit kamane ke liye efficiency bahut important hai. Advertising revenue badhana aur EBITDA margins ko FY31 tak 4% tak le jana FY26 ke estimated -3% se ek bada challenge hai. Promoter holding bhi sirf 16.57% hai, jo dekhne wali baat hai.
Dusre Analysts kya keh rahe hain?
Meesho ka focus NMV badhane aur advertising aur logistics ka fayda uthane par hai. JP Morgan ko free cash flow recovery jaldi hone ki umeed hai. Axis Capital ne bhi 'Buy' rating di hai aur ₹195 ka target rakha hai, unko chhote shehron mein potential dikh raha hai. Lekin BofA Securities thoda cautious hai, unhone 'Neutral' rating aur ₹190 target diya hai. Investors dekhenge ki Meesho kaise apne margins badhata hai aur is crowded market mein compete karta hai.