Whalesbook
Arre yaar, Kaynes Technology ka net profit 21.5% gir kar ₹91.22 crore ho gaya aur Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services ka profit 30.4% badh kar ₹40.60 crore raha, lekin dono ke March 2026 quarter ke results aate hi share price seedha neeche girne lag gaye.
Pehle Kaynes ki baat karte hain. Iska revenue 26.2% badh kar ₹1,242.64 crore raha, par ye bhi company ke FY26 ke guidance se neeche reh gaya. Sabse badi tension working capital ki hai, jo badhkar 125 din ho gayi, jabki guidance thi 85 din ki. Aur FY26 mein operating cash flow (OCF) toh ₹600 crore negative mein tha. Company ne FY28 tak ₹8,000 crore se zyada ka capex plan kiya hai, toh yeh cash flow ka issue serious hai. Issi wajah se brokerages jaise JM Financial aur JPMorgan ne bhi rating aur target price kam kar diye hain. India ka EMS sector toh 27% CAGR se grow hone ka estimate hai, par Kaynes ko iss demand ko profit mein badalne mein dikkat ho rahi hai, kyunki costs badh rahi hain.
Ab baat karte hain Zaggle ki. Iska revenue toh 49.9% badh kar ₹617.91 crore ho gaya aur profit bhi achha tha, par market ne margin kam hone aur cash flow weak hone par tension dikha di. Sequential EBITDA margin 9.4% par aa gaya, jo 46 basis points kam hai. Aur Q4 mein OCF bhi standalone ₹(6.3 crore) aur consolidated ₹(51.5 crore) negative mein tha. Fintech market mein aajkal profitability par focus hai, aur Zaggle ka growth strategy sawalon mein hai. UPI ecosystem aur order book toh strong hai, par agar cash flow improve nahi hua toh valuation par pressure aa sakta hai, TTM P/E ratio 22x se 30x ke beech mein hai.
Overall, dono companies mein main issue execution aur cash generate karne ka lag raha hai. Kaynes ke liye working capital cycle ka badhna aur revenue/cash flow targets consistently miss hona, operational management par sawaal uthata hai. Zaggle mein revenue growth toh achhi hai, par OCF aur margin mein dikat dikh rahi hai. In a fintech market demanding profits, revenue ke peeche bhaagna bina cash generate kiye valuation gira sakta hai. Company pehle bhi 42% tak gir chuki thi apne 52-week high se, jo dikhata hai ki market sensitive hai.
Analysts long-term mein toh dono companies aur unke sectors ko lekar positive hain. Kaynes ke liye kayi brokerages 'Buy' rating de rahe hain, EMS sector ki growth ko dekhte hue. JPMorgan bhi FY26-28E mein strong growth dekh raha hai, agar performance guidance ke hisab se rahi toh. Zaggle ke liye consensus 'Strong Buy' hai aur target prices bhi achhe hain. Lekin, abhi market mein jo share price gir rahe hain, woh near-term profitability aur cash flow ke concerns dikha rahe hain, jiske wajah se analyst ratings aur stock performance mein gap aa gaya hai.