Whalesbook
Arey bhaiyon, ekdum naya update aaya hai PhysicsWallah ke liye! JPMorgan, jo ek badi investment bank hai, ne iss edtech company par apni coverage shuru ki hai aur seedha 'Overweight' rating thok di hai. Iska matlab hai ki unko lagta hai ki PhysicsWallah ka stock abhi aur 14% tak upar ja sakta hai, unke current price jo lagbhag ₹109-₹110 ke aas paas hai, usse. Aaj Tuesday ko stock mein 2.7% ki badhotri bhi dekhi gayi, jabki BSE Sensex 0.77% hi badha tha.
Valuation ka Funda kya hai?
Ye brokerage walon ne company ko alag alag business units mein baant kar value kiya hai, jise Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) kehte hain. PhysicsWallah ke jo profitable online aur hybrid test prep business hai na, usko ye log 30x EV/EBITDA ka multiple de rahe hain. Ye kaafi achha multiple hai, jo unke online strength ko dikhata hai. Dusri taraf, jo offline centers hain, unhe sirf 10x EV/EBITDA diya hai. Kyun? Kyunki abhi offline mein thoda loss chal raha hai, par umeed hai ki FY27 tak woh break-even ho jayenge. Haan, inka jo naya K-12 school segment hai, usko abhi koi value nahi mili hai is report mein.
Market ka Scene aur Paisa
India ka test preparation market toh bhai, bahut bada hone wala hai. Estimates hai ki FY25-30 tak ye $23-25 billion tak pahunch jayega, growth rate 13% CAGR ke aas paas. Aur isme bhi, online segment aur bhi tezi se badhega, 29% CAGR se, aur $6-6.5 billion tak ja sakta hai. PhysicsWallah apne saste price model se yahan achhi pakad bana sakta hai.
Company ki market cap lagbhag ₹30,600 crore hai. Par agar P/E ratio dekho toh woh negative ya zero ke aas paas hai, jo sector average 28.38 se bahut alag hai. Iska matlab profit abhi focus area hai. Q3 FY26 mein EBITDA margins toh 32% dikhe the, par PAT margins sirf 9% the. Matlab operating expenses, interest ya tax kaafi hai net profit ko kam karne ke liye. EdTech mein competitors bhi bahut hain jaise BYJU'S, Unacademy, Vedantu.
Baki analysts ke bhi mix views hain. Goldman Sachs ne 'Neutral' rating di hai, aur kuch log ₹140 ka target bhi de rahe hain. Par overall average target ₹122-₹125 ke aas paas hai, jo JPMorgan ke view se match karta hai. Stock ka 52-week range ₹77.72 se ₹161.99 hai.
Risks aur Challenges
Par bhai, sirf achhi baatein nahi hain. JPMorgan ne 'Overweight' rating di hai, par kuch risks bhi bataye hain. Online mein student ya faculty churn ho sakta hai, ya fir CAPEX zyada ho sakta hai. Agar online growth slow ho aur offline pe zyada focus ho jaye, toh return on invested capital par asar pad sakta hai.
Sasta model rakhte hue costs manage karna mushkil ho sakta hai, especially hybrid model mein. Offline centers ko 500 tak le jaane ka plan hai FY29 tak (abhi 318 hain late 2025 mein), jisme kaafi paisa lagega. K-12 segment mein regulatory risk bhi hai. India EdTech sector mein regulations, affordability, customer acquisition cost, aur digital access ke issues bhi hain. Kuch logon ne company ke 'Growth', 'Quality', 'Management' ko 'Poor' bhi bola hai, haalanki price attractive hai.
Aage kya ho sakta hai?
JPMorgan ko lagta hai ki PhysicsWallah ka online business FY26-28 tak 30% grow karega, aur margins 30% se 33% ho sakte hain. Offline centers FY27 tak break-even ho jayenge. Aur agar K-12 segment achha perform karta hai toh woh alag se upside de sakta hai. India EdTech market overall $33.31 billion tak ja sakta hai 2034 tak. Ab dekhte hain ki ye growth lasting profitability mein badalti hai ya nahi.