Whalesbook
Infosys ke stock mein aaj badi girawat dekhne ko mili hai, aur iske peeche sabse bada reason hai company ka FY27 ke liye aaya kamzor growth outlook.
Hain toh Q4 FY26 results mein company ne profit toh analysts ko surprise karte hue ₹8,501 Crore ka dikhaya hai, aur margin bhi 21% tak badhaya hai. Lekin revenue growth thoda slow raha, sirf 4.1% YoY constant currency mein. Aur agar sequential dekhein toh revenue 1.3% tak gira hai.
Asli problem shuru hoti hai FY27 ke guidance se. Company ne kaha hai ki revenue 1.5% se 3.5% ke beech grow karega constant currency mein. Ye numbers umeed se kaafi kam hain aur investors ko chintit kar rahe hain.
Is kamzor outlook ko dekh kar bade bade brokerages jaise Kotak Securities, Jefferies, aur Citi ne turant apne price targets kam kar diye hain. Kotak ne target ₹1530 se ₹1440 kiya hai, Jefferies ne ₹1290 se ₹1235, aur Citi ne ₹1395 se ₹1300 kiya hai. Sabhi ne kaha hai ki Infosys ko abhi bhi subpar growth ka saamna karna padega.
Is news ka asar turant dikha. Infosys ADRs toh lagbhag 7% gir gaye market band hone ke baad. Investors ko company ke growth prospects ko lekar kaafi chinta hai.
Abhi Infosys TTM P/E 18.31 par trade kar raha hai, jo peer Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) ke kareeb hai aur HCL Technologies se kaafi kam hai jiska P/E 23 ke aas paas hai. Pehle Infosys ko valuation premium milta tha, par ab is growth outlook se wo position bhi sawalon mein hai. Company ki market cap $60.06 billion ke aas paas hai.
Overall IT sector bhi kuch challenges face kar raha hai. Generative AI ki wajah se traditional IT services ke price kam ho sakte hain, jisse revenue 2-3% tak kam ho sakta hai annually. Infosys ne OpenAI ke saath partnership ki hai AI ke liye, par company khud keh rahi hai ki competitive pressure aur AI se productivity badhne ke karan margins aur growth dono par pressure hai. Kuch sectors jaise communications aur manufacturing mein bhi clients spending ko lekar cautious hain.
Basically, investors ka main concern hai ki company kaise tech industry mein strong, high-margin growth maintain karegi. FY27 guidance lagta hai ki slow growth ka ek lamba daur chalega. Pichli baar bhi jab FY26 ka guidance kam diya tha, tab bhi stock gira tha. Analyst consensus abhi 'Hold' rating par hai, aur average price targets $16 ke aas paas hain, matlab zyada upside dikh nahi raha hai.