Whalesbook
Achanak Stock Kyun Gira? (The Real Reason)
Okay, toh Infosys ne Q4 FY26 mein mast numbers dikhaye hain. Profit ₹8,509 Crore par pahunch gaya, jo pichhle saal se 20.89% zyada hai. Aur revenue ki baat karein toh woh bhi ₹46,402 Crore tak pahunch gaya, matlab 13.38% ka jump. Poore FY26 ki baat karein toh revenue ₹1,78,650 Crore aur profit ₹29,474 Crore raha. Company ne ₹25 per share ka final dividend bhi announce kiya hai.
Lekin... yeh numbers sunkar investors khush hone ke bajaye tension mein aa gaye. Kyun? Because company ne FY27 ke liye jo revenue growth ka guidance diya hai woh bahut conservative hai, sirf 1.5% se 3.5% ke beech. Iske saath hi, sector mein bhi kuch problems chal rahi hain, jaise HCLTech ke bhi results aur outlook waise nahi rahe jaise expected the. Is wajah se Infosys ke ADRs ~6% gir gaye aur stock bhi 2.21% down hokar ₹1,240.60 par close hua.
Sector Trends Aur Competition Ka Pressure
Dekho, Infosys ne HCLTech jaise competitors ke muqable Q4 mein better YoY growth dikhaya. Lekin overall IT sector par pressure hai. HCLTech ke weak guidance (FY27 ke liye 2.4% revenue growth) ne poore IT pack ko neeche kheench diya. Gartner predict kar raha hai ki India ka IT spending 2026 mein $176.3 billion ( 10.6% increase) hoga, par companies ko client spending aur budget adjustments ki chinta hai.
Stock Ka Performance Aur Valuation
Infosys ka stock abhi apne 52-week low ₹1,215.10 ke aas-paas trade ho raha hai. Pichhle saal February mein yeh ₹1,728 tak gaya tha. Company ka P/E ratio bhi average se kam chal raha hai, matlab market future growth ko lekar zyada optimistic nahi hai. FY25 mein bhi Infosys ne Nifty50 ke muqable underperform kiya tha.
Growth Guidance Aur Investor Concerns
Sabse bada reason share girne ka Infosys ka FY27 revenue guidance hi hai. Isme sequential dollar revenue mein 1.3% QoQ ka decline bhi dikha aur growth bhi slow hai. Operating margins stable 21% par hain, par kuch analysts ko lagta hai yeh thoda girega. Geopolitical uncertainty aur clients ke priorities badalne se bhi IT sector par pressure hai. Company ne yeh bhi bataya ki attrition rate 12.6% ho gaya hai aur headcount 8,000+ se kam ho gaya hai. Analyst ratings bhi mixed hain, haalanki most 'Hold' keh rahe hain, par 20% analysts ne 'Strong Sell' bhi recommend kiya hai.
Future Kya Kehta Hai?
India IT sector ka future bright dikh raha hai, $176 billion se zyada ka market hai. Lekin Infosys ko AI-native capabilities aur clients ke badalte spending habits ke beech navigate karna hoga. FY27 mein operating margin guidance 20%-22% maintain karna aur bade deals jeetna company ke liye crucial hoga.