Whalesbook
Yaar, is girawat ke peeche sabse bada reason hai global market mein badhti hui chinta. Economic slowdown aur geopolitical tensions ke chalte, investors ko lag raha hai ki US aur Europe waale clients apna tech spending kam kar denge. Isi wajah se IT firms par selling pressure dekha gaya, jisse Nifty IT index lagbhag 3% neeche gir gaya. Aisa ho gaya hai ki pichle 30 din mein toh sector 8% se zyada lagbhag 52-week lows ke paas aa gaya hai.
Abhi numbers mein ek interesting disconnect dikh raha hai. Bade players jaise Infosys TTM P/E ke hisaab se 15.2 se 16.5 tak trade kar rahe hain, aur TCS 16.3 se 17.7 tak. Ye numbers historical data ke hisaab se kaafi reasonable lag rahe hain. Lekin mid-cap companies jaise Persistent Systems ka P/E 42.9 se 43.3 tak hai, Coforge 27.9 se 35.3 tak, aur Tech Mahindra 26.9 se 29.8 tak. Yahan par valuation thoda alag dikh raha hai, jisme kuch mid-caps strong growth dikha rahe hain par price bhi zyada hai. Tech Mahindra ka toh 'Sell' rating bhi aa gaya hai, aur perform bhi nahi kar raha. Wahi, kuch analysts ko TCS undervalued lag raha hai, jisko 'Hold' rating mili hai.
Market filhaal AI aur digital transformation ki long-term growth ko nazarandaaz kar raha hai aur short-term cyclical risks par focus kar raha hai. Global IT spending toh badhega AI ki wajah se, par India IT ka FY26 growth forecast lagbhag 6.1% lagaya ja raha hai, jo global market se kam hai. History mein bhi India IT stocks US slowdown se affected hue hain, jisse revenue drops aur job cuts hue hain. Aur H-1B visa costs badhne ka bhi risk hai. Goldman Sachs ka kehna hai ki AI se productivity badhegi, par traditional revenue streams kam ho sakte hain. Aur haan, rupaya kamzor hone ka fayda bhi abhi dikh nahi raha kyunki market demand ki chinta mein hai. Mphasis ka dividend toh theek hai, par sales growth slow hai aur unpaid debts ki chinta hai.
Toh bhai, abhi thoda cautious rehne ka time hai. Crude oil prices aur West Asia ki events par nazar rakho. Market mein volatility reh sakti hai jab tak ye global economic risks clear nahi ho jate. Par long term mein AI, cloud, aur digital transformation ki demand toh solid hai. Kuch reports ke hisaab se FY26 quiet rahega aur FY27 mein recovery aa sakti hai.