Indian IT Stocks: Kya rally chalegi ya phir giraavat aayegi? AI aur Rupee ka chakkar!

Share prices toh bhaag rahe hain, par kyun?

Apne IT sector ke shares ne pichhle teen din mein waakai kamaal kar diya hai. Nifty IT index 8% bhaga hai aur lagbhag 29,750 ke level ko chhoo raha hai. Logon ko lagta hai ki yeh technical correction hai kyunki saal bhar mein gire the. Is rally mein toh Coforge aur Mphasis jaise shares 5% se bhi zyada upar gaye, Infosys, LTIMindtree aur Tech Mahindra bhi 4% se zyada badhe.

Iske peeche do bade reasons hain:

1. Rupee ki girawat: Jab Indian Rupee US Dollar ke muqable kamzor hota hai (aaj 96.38 par tha), toh IT companies jo dollar mein kamaati hain, unka profit badh jata hai. Yeh unke liye bahut faydemand hai.
2. Attractive Valuations: Companies ab pehle se zyada affordable lag rahi hain, jis se investors phir se kharidari kar rahe hain.

Harish Jujarey naam ke expert bhi keh rahe hain ki RSI indicator 50 ke aas-paas aa raha hai, jo ek achha sign hai.

Lekin, sab kuch itna bhi achha nahi hai...

Yeh rally chalegi ya nahi, yeh dekhna hoga. Kuch badi companies ne hi 10% se zyada growth ka guidance diya hai. Analyst keh rahe hain ki selective hona padega, jaise Coforge aur Persistent Systems jaise mid-sized companies mein potential hai.

AI ka bada threat: Sabse badi chinta AI ki badhti taaqat hai. OpenAI aur Anthropic jaise companies direct clients ke saath kaam kar rahe hain. Yeh 'SaaSpocalypse' jaisa scenario bana sakta hai, jahan traditional IT firms ko bypass kar diya jayega aur unke services ki demand kam ho jayegi. Companies apna paisa AI solutions mein laga rahi hain.

Economic aur Global Worries: Rupee ka girna sirf faydemand nahi hai, yeh economy mein kamzori ka bhi ishara deta hai. West Asia mein tensions aur global problems bhi investors ko pareshan kar rahe hain. Foreign Portfolio Investors ne toh May 2026 mein hi ₹27,048 crore nikal liye, aur 2026 mein ab tak total ₹2.2 lakh crore outflow ho chuka hai. Yeh dikhata hai ki global investors India jaise emerging markets ko lekar kaafi savdhaan hain.

Technical Chart bhi confuse kar raha hai: Nifty IT index ka overall trend abhi bhi neeche ki taraf dikh raha hai. Agar index 29,750-30,000 ke level ko paar nahi kar paata, toh yeh wapas neeche ja sakta hai aur 2023 ke low (26,200) ko test kar sakta hai. West Asia ki situation bhi crude oil prices aur rupee ko affect kar sakti hai.

Past mein bhi hua hai aisa: Yaad hai December 2025 mein bhi IT stocks aise hi bhage the aur phir gir gaye the? Kuch mahine pehle May 12, 2026 ko bhi AI aur geopolitical reasons se stock 4% gira tha. Toh yeh rally temporary bhi ho sakti hai.