Whalesbook
Toh bhai, IndiaMART InterMESH ka plan suno FY27 ke liye. Ye log chahte hain ki revenue 10-12% se badhe aur profit margins 33% ke level par rahe. Ye karna kaise hai? Inka jo Busy software wala business hai na, woh bahut acha perform kar raha hai, profit mein bhi aa jayega aur 25% tak grow karne ka expectation hai. Lekin yahan ek bada 'parantu' hai...
company ka jo asal online marketplace hai, wahan problem chal rahi hai. Naye log jud toh rahe hain, par purane log (khaas kar jo chote users hain) exit kar rahe hain. Is 'churn' ki wajah se future ka outlook thoda hazy lag raha hai. Ye sab tab ho raha hai jab Q4 FY24 mein inka net profit 72.2% gir gaya tha.
Q4 FY24 mein profit ₹50.2 crore pe aa gaya, jo pichhle saal se 72.2% kam hai. Haalanki, revenue 13.9% badhkar ₹404.3 crore ho gaya. Lekin EBITDA margins bhi thode kam hue hain, 36.7% se 32.8% par aa gaye. Stock price ki baat karein toh, abhi yeh ₹2,066.90 ke aas paas hai. Pichhle 6 mahine mein stock 16% gira hai, jo market ka doubt dikhata hai.
Brokerage firms abhi bhi 'Outperform' rating de rahe hain aur target price ₹2,500-₹2,600 ke beech de rahe hain. Lekin kuch experts ne 'Reduce' karne ki salah di hai kyunki subscriber growth slow hai aur valuation bhi zyada lag raha hai. Waise, company ka current P/E ratio 21-24x hai, jo inke 10 saal ke average 50.64x se kaafi kam hai. Iska matlab market ne kuch problems ko pehle se hi count kar liya hai.
India ka B2B e-commerce market toh grow kar raha hai, 2030 tak $200 billion ka ho sakta hai. SMEs ko digitalization ki zarurat hai. Competitors ki baat karein toh Info Edge (Naukri) ka P/E ratio 56.7x hai, jo IndiaMART se zyada hai. IndiaMART ka stock pichhle saal market se pichhad gaya hai.
Asal risk SME segment mein hai, jo economic changes se jaldi affect hota hai. Q4 mein margins ka girna yahi dikhata hai ki yeh pressure shayad continue rahe. Stock performance aur market ka reaction yehi batata hai ki management ke liye core business mein growth laana ek bada challenge hai.
Ab company ka focus hai Busy software ko aur badhana aur saath hi core marketplace ko bhi theek karna. FY27 ke liye koi specific subscriber target nahi diya hai, lekin agar har quarter mein 2,000-3,000 users ka consistent growth dikha toh baat ban sakti hai. Collections theek chal rahi hain, toh agar churn kam ho gaya toh revenue goals mil jayenge aur investors ka confidence bhi wapas aa jayega.