Whalesbook
Toh scene kya hai, aaj Indian stock market mein IT shares ne toh chaa gaye! Geopolitical tensions thode shaant hue, aur bas kya, Infosys toh 4% uchhal kar ₹1,187.30 par pahunch gaya! TCS bhi 2.5% tez hokar ₹1,180.30 aur HCLTech bhi 2.9% badhkar ₹1,471.30 par aa gaya. In sabki wajah se Sensex 75,600 ke upar aur Nifty 23,700 paar kar gaya. Nifty IT index toh poori tarah se form mein tha! Analysts keh rahe hain ki agar Nifty 23,500 ke upar bana raha toh 23,900 tak ja sakta hai. Ekdum se sabko laga ki bus ab market udne hi wala hai.
Lekin bhai, yeh toh sirf IT sector ki kahani hai. Asal mein toh market mein badi problems chal rahi hain. Sabse pehle toh apna Indian Rupee hai jo US Dollar ke saamne lagbhag ₹96 par aa gaya hai. Aur haan, crude oil bhi abhi bhi mehenga hi hai, Brent $110 aur WTI $103 ke aas-paas. Jab Rupee girta hai aur oil mehenga hota hai, toh import karne wale desh India ke liye mushkil ho jaati hai. Isse inflation badhti hai aur companies ka profit kam ho sakta hai. Isi liye aapne dekha hoga ki Nifty Metal aur Nifty Energy jaise sectors neeche gire.
Ab dekho, TCS aur Infosys jaise IT companies ke P/E ratios 38 aur 33 hain, matlab investors un par bharosa karte hain. Lekin ONGC jaise companies ko seedha nuksan hota hai oil prices se. Reliance Industries jaisi diversified companies thoda sambhal jaati hain. Ajeeb baat yeh hai ki investors toh phir se buying kar rahe hain, par yeh sab Rupee aur oil ke fluctuations par depend karta hai. India VIX bhi 19.63 par band hua, matlab thoda risk abhi bhi hai market mein.
Filhaal toh sab log Q4 earnings dekh rahe hain, aur woh abhi tak toh expectations se badhiya aa rahe hain. Par asli direction toh crude oil aur Rupee hi batayenge. IT sector toh filhaal mast hai, par baaki sectors ka kya hoga yeh dekhna padega.