Whalesbook
Toh hua kya hai, ki saal ke pehle 9 hafton mein hi India mein smartphone sales ekdum se 9% kam ho gayi. Iska reason hai ki phone banane wale components, jaise memory chips (DRAM aur NAND), ke prices kaafi badh gaye hain. Is wajah se brands ne phones ke average price mein ₹1,500 tak badha diya hai, jisse logon ne kharidna kam kar diya.
Lekin achhi baat yeh hai ki jo log mehange phones le rahe hain, unki demand kam nahi hui. Premium segment, matlab ₹30,000 se upar wale phones, ab market value ko bachaa rahe hain. Early 2024 mein inka share 20% volume aur 51% value tha, aur ab 2026 ki shuruaat mein bhi yeh 22% shipments mein aa gaye hain, jo ki growth dikhata hai.
Kuch brands ne toh kamaal kiya hai. Vivo toh 19% grow kar gaya sales mein, unke naye models aur Y aur T series ne bahut support kiya. Apple bhi 12% upar hai, iPhone 17 series ke discounts ne demand badha di. Pichhle saal 2025 mein Apple ka value share toh India mein 28% tak pahunch gaya tha, record!
Lekin overall picture thoda serious hai. Tarun Pathak, jo ki ek research director hain, unka kehna hai ki 2026 mein smartphone market 10% tak shrink ho sakta hai. Global tension aur badhti commodity prices iska karan ban sakti hain. IDC toh keh raha hai ki yeh sabse bada market contraction ho sakta hai, memory supply chain mein gadbadi ki wajah se.
Memory chips ki keemat 40% tak badhne wali hai early 2026 mein, jisse manufacturing cost 8% se 15% tak badh jayega. Yeh AI data centers ki demand ke karan bhi ho raha hai. Isse brands ko prices badhani padti hain, khaskar saste phones ke liye.
Iska asar entry-level segment par sabse zyada hai. $100 se kam wale phones 14% gir gaye, unka market share 20% se kam hokar 15% ho gaya. Jabki premium segment 20% volume aur 51% value share lekar strong hai.
Market mein competetion bhi interesting hai. Early 2025 mein vivo ne volume mein lead kiya, Samsung ne value mein. Xiaomi toh 37% gir gaya. Apple ne Q1 2025 mein 23% growth dikhaya.
Ab asli problem hai affordability. Price hike ke karan entry-level aur mid-range phones bahut log nahi khareed pa rahe. Memory chip prices aur 40% badh sakti hain Q2 2026 tak, jisse $200 se kam wale phones par pressure aur aayega. Ho sakta hai isse chote brands ko dikkat ho.
Log ab naye budget phones nahi kharid rahe, shayad purane phone ko hi use karenge ya refurbished phone lenge. India ka used smartphone market 2026 tak $10 billion ka ho jayega, yeh dikhata hai trend.
Bahari factors jaise geopolitical tensions, commodity prices aur rupee ka girna bhi logon ki kharidari ko kam kar raha hai. Jo brands mass market par depend karte hain, unki mushkil badhegi.
Aage chal kar, companies premium phones par hi focus karengi, EMIs aur financing ke saath. Premium phones ki demand aur finance ki wajah se market value badhti rahegi, lekin overall volume kam ho sakta hai. Average selling price (ASP) $282 (2025) se aur upar jayega. Recovery dheere-dheere hogi, aur mass market mein challenges rahenge.