Whalesbook
Yaar, ye jo badi Indian IT companies hain na, TCS, Infosys, Wipro, inka pehle ka share buyback ka plan ab ek bahut mehenga mistake lag raha hai. Jab share ka price pehle se hi bahut upar tha, tab companies ne buyback kiya, jisse investors ka bahut bada nuksaan hua hai.
Aur sabse critical baat ye hai ki is kharch ne zaruri Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments se dhyan aur paisa hata diya, jis se global rivals ke muqable hum peeche reh gaye hain aur future ki zaruraton ko poora karne mein dikkat aa sakti hai.
Buyback Prices Vs Current Shares
Ye companies jaise TCS, Infosys aur Wipro ne shares tab kharide jab price ₹3,000, ₹4,500, ₹4,150 (TCS ke liye) ya ₹1,750, ₹1,850, ₹1,800 (Infosys ke liye) aur haal hi mein ₹250 (Wipro ke liye) tha. Ab ye shares ₹2,400 (TCS), ₹1,155 (Infosys) aur ₹204 (Wipro) ke aas paas trade kar rahe hain. Matlab investors ko buyback price se 8% se lekar 47% tak ka nuksaan ho raha hai. Yehi nahi, Nifty IT index toh is saal ab tak alag-bhag 25% gir chuka hai, aur 24 April 2026 ko 28,530.60 par band hua tha. Sector ki current situation kaafi kharab hai.
Billions Spent, AI Chuka Diya
In teeno IT giants ne buybacks par lagbhag ₹1.24 lakh crore kharch kiye hain. Ye ek bahut bada mauka tha jise kho diya gaya. Itne paise se Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, platforms aur acquisitions mein zaruri investments ki ja sakti thi. Ab sector AI mein piche reh gaya hai aur catch-up karne ki race mein hai.
India ka target hai ki agli do saal mein $200 billion se zyada AI mein invest kare, aur Gartner ka forecast hai ki India ka IT spending 2026 mein $176 billion ko paar kar jayega. Lekin, purani capital spending ki habits ki wajah se companies AI mein lead lene mein slow ho sakti hain.
Haalanki TCS ki market cap ₹11.40 lakh crore (P/E 17.54) hai, Infosys ₹4.68 lakh crore (P/E 15.89) aur Wipro ₹2.09 lakh crore (P/E 15.80) hai. Nifty IT index mein saal dar saal lagbhag 19.19% ki giraavat aayi hai, jabki Nifty 50 mein lagbhag 1.44% ki slight kami aayi. Foreign institutional investors ne bhi apni stakes kam kar di hain.
Timing Aur Valuation Ka Game
Ye buybacks aksar tab kiye gaye jab trailing P/E multiples bahut high the, digital demand peak par thi aur growth forecasts bhi ambitious the. Iska matlab hai ki valuations kisi solid value ke bajaye sirf umeed par आधारित the. Jaise TCS ne buybacks 34x, 39x aur 30x P/E par kiye, jo abhi ke current P/E 17.54 se kaafi zyada hai. Infosys ne historical buybacks 24.5% se zyada premium par aur Wipro ne 16-19% premium par kiye. Ye decisions ab peak-cycle sentiment se liye gaye lagte hain, na ki Warren Buffett jaise value investing ke principle par. Regulators buybacks allow karte hain, lekin timing aur pricing strategic choices hain jinhone shareholder capital ko devalue kiya hai.
Future AI Par Hai, Analyst Kya Bolte Hain?
Ab sector ka future AI-driven services par depend karta hai. Analysts TCS ko lekar positive hain, 'Buy' ratings aur price targets aane wale moderate gains ka ishara de rahe hain. Lekin Infosys ke liye outlook mixed hai, aur kai analysts ne FY27 ke liye cautious revenue forecasts ( 1.5% se 3.5% ) ki wajah se 'Hold' ratings di hain. Aisa bhi concern hai ki generative AI agle kuch saalon mein traditional IT services mein annual revenue ko 2% se 3% tak gira sakta hai. Wahi dusri taraf, AI 2030 tak $300-400 billion ka ek alag market create karne wala hai. In companies ke liye sabse bada challenge hai ki woh AI opportunity ko effectively kaise use karti hain aur traditional service providers se AI-led innovation leaders banti hain. Ye past capital allocation errors ko overcome karne aur future mein relevant rehne ke liye bahut zaroori hai.