Whalesbook
Toh dekho, yeh growth aa kahan se rahi hai? Simple hai - log ab zyada baar order kar rahe hain, aur yeh service ab Tier-2 aur chhote shehron mein bhi pahunch rahi hai. 2024 mein ₹9 Billion ka market, 2030 tak ₹27 Billion ko touch karega, growth rate 19% saalana! Urbanization, digital usage badhna, aur convenience ki demand - sab factors kaam kar rahe hain.
Ab aate hain main game par - Quick Commerce! Yeh wala segment toh rocket speed se badh raha hai, 40% se zyada saalana growth expected hai FY30 tak. Investec toh keh raha hai ki yeh 'survival of the fittest' wala market hai. Zomato ka Blinkit yahan kaafi aage hai Swiggy ke Instamart se. Reports ke hisaab se Blinkit ne FY25 mein apne losses 92% tak kam kar diye hain aur Q1 FY25 mein uska market share lagbhag 46% tha. Swiggy ka Instamart, haan, uske sales badhe, par losses 60% badh gaye! Swiggy ka Gross Order Value per user accha hai, par scale mein Blinkit abhi bhi bahut aage hai.
Lekin asli sawal yeh hai ki paisa banega kaise? Valuation ko lekar sab confuse hain. Zomato ke P/E ratios 97.6 se 1700 tak jaa rahe hain late 2025 tak. April 2026 mein uska market cap $21.55 Billion se $22.87 Billion USD tha. Zomato ne FY25 mein ₹527 Crore ka net profit dikhaya hai, jo pichhle saal se zyada hai. Food delivery se uska adjusted EBITDA margin bhi 2.8% ho gaya hai FY24 mein (FY21 mein -18% tha), toh profit ki taraf safar chal raha hai. Wahi, Swiggy ne FY25 mein ₹15,227 Crore ki revenue banayi, par ₹3,117 Crore ka loss bhi kar diya. FY24 mein uska food delivery EBITDA margin -0.2% tha. Yeh numbers dekh kar analysts bhi soch mein pad gaye hain.
Competition itni zabardast hai ki profits par pressure aa raha hai. Zepto aur Amazon jaise rivals bade discounts de rahe hain, jiski wajah se Zomato aur Swiggy ke liye profit banana mushkil ho raha hai. Isi wajah se Jefferies ne January 2025 mein Zomato ko 'Hold' rating de di thi, target price bhi kam kar diya tha aur Blinkit ka valuation multiple bhi aadha kar diya tha. Food delivery ko 'defensible' mana jaata hai, lekin capital ki lagtaar zarurat aur alag-alag verticals mein expansion companies ke liye execution risks badha rahi hai. Agar yeh companies market par bahut zyada dominant ho jaati hain, toh regulators bhi sawaal utha sakte hain commission, workers ki conditions ya data privacy par.
Ab analysts ke views bhi alag-alag hain. Kuch log 2030 tak market $59 Billion se bhi zyada ka hone ka andaza laga rahe hain, CAGR 14.2% se 21% ke beech. Jefferies valuation aur competition ko lekar cautious hai, isliye 'Hold' rating hai. Wahi, Morgan Stanley 'Overweight' hai aur Zomato ko sector leader maanta hai. April 2026 mein Investec ne toh 'Buy' rating dekar ₹375 ka target bhi diya hai, jisme unhone Zomato ke integrated model aur Blinkit ki position ko highlight kiya hai. Toh bhai, growth toh hai, par competition aur profitabilty ka game abhi bhi kafi complicated hai.