Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki HFCL ne Q4 FY26 mein jo results nikale hain, woh ekdum zabardast hain. Company ne consolidated Profit mein ₹184.45 crore ka record profit kamaya hai, jo last year ke loss ₹83.3 crore se ekdum ulta hai. Revenue bhi practically double ho gaya, ₹801 crore se sidha ₹1,824.12 crore tak pahunch gaya. Is wajah se stock seedha ₹153.55 ke 52-week high par ja pahuncha.
Aur baat yahi nahi khatam hoti. Company ko $19.32 million (matlab lagbhag ₹183.95 crore) ke export orders bhi mile hain optical fiber cables ke liye. Yeh ekdum solid sign hai ki global market mein bhi company ki dum hai. Aur is sab ke baad, company ka order book ab ₹21,206 crore ka ho gaya hai, jo pichhle saal ke ₹9,967 crore se double se bhi zyada hai. Matlab future mein revenue ki tension nahi.
Lekin, har kahaani mein ek 'but' hota hai, aur yahan bhi hai. Bhai, HFCL ka P/E ratio ab lagbhag 70.11 chal raha hai. Yeh Birla Cable ke aas paas hai jo 68.74 se 72.96 ke beech hai. Lekin Indus Towers dekho toh uska P/E sirf 10.7 hai, aur Tejas Networks ka 16.8. Matlab HFCL apne peers se kaafi expensive lag raha hai.
Ek aur dikkat hai company ke EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) business mein, jo lagbhag hamesha loss mein chal raha hai warranty costs ki wajah se. Optical fiber cable wala business toh mast chal raha hai aur full capacity par hai, lekin margins thode kam hue hain Q3 se Q4 mein (18.47% vs 20.11% EBITDA margin). Aur raw material ke daam bhi badh rahe hain, jisse margins par aur pressure aa sakta hai.
Stock ne pichhle ek mahine mein lagbhag double ho gaya hai aur saal ki shuruat se ab tak 147% badh gaya hai. Itna rapid rally dekh kar kuch experts ko lagta hai ki valuation bahut zyada ho gaya hai aur agar growth targets meet nahi hue toh correction aa sakta hai.
Waise, HFCL management bol raha hai ki FY27 mein 20-25% revenue growth expect kar rahe hain. Aur analysts ka average 12-month target ₹150 ke aas paas hai. Ab dekhte hain ki company yeh premium valuation justify kar paati hai ya nahi.