Whalesbook
Toh, kya hua hai ki HCL Tech ne Q4 ke results bataye hain, aur unhone revenue mein expectation miss kar diya. Unka constant currency revenue 3.3% sequential decline dikha raha hai, jabki analysts ko lag raha tha ki yeh sirf 0.9% kam hoga. Sirf revenue hi nahi, EBIT margins bhi thode compress ho gaye hain, 16.5% par aa gaye hain, jo ki market ke 17.2% ke estimate se kam hai.
Magar ek interesting baat yeh hai ki company ne naye deals mein kaafi dum dikhaya hai. Unhone 35.4% year-on-year badhotri ke saath $1.9 billion ke naye contracts sign kiye hain. Lekin lagta hai yeh future ki deals abhi current revenue aur margins ko boost nahi kar pa rahi hain. Management ne bataya ki America mein kuch bade clients ne spending kam kar diya hai, jiske karan revenue expectations miss hue.
Future ki baat karein toh FY27 ke liye HCL Tech revenue growth 1% se 4% (constant currency mein) expect kar raha hai, jo ki overall Indian IT services sector ke liye expected 10% to 13.4% growth se kaafi kam hai. Unka FY27 EBIT margin ka target 17.5% se 18.5% hai, jiske liye current 16.5% se kaafi improvement chahiye hoga.
Valuation ke mamle mein bhi HCL Tech thoda mehnga lag raha hai. Current P/E ratio 23x-24x ke aas paas hai, jo ki TCS ( 19.3x) aur Wipro ( 16.2x) se zyada hai. Matlab, HCL Tech ka growth forecast kam hone ke bawajood, valuation peers se zyada hai. Peers ne bhi mix results diye hain; TCS ne FY26 mein revenue drop dekha, lekin margins 25.3% maintain kiye. Wipro ne bhi margins 17.3% tak sudhare hain.
Is result ke baad kai analysts ne stock par ratings kam kar di hain. Jefferies ne toh 'Underperform' rating de di hai aur target price ₹1,165 set kiya hai. Unka kehna hai ki FY27 mein organic growth sirf 2.4% rehne ka andaza hai, jo ki bahut kam hai. Baaki analysts bhi stock ke high valuation ko ab kam growth prospects ke saath justify karne mein mushkil pa rahe hain.
Sabse badi chinta execution risk ki hai. Deal value toh badh rahi hai, lekin revenue aur margins gir rahe hain. Iska matlab hai ki companies ko naye deals se paisa kamane mein problem ho rahi hai. Market ne bhi is baat ko notice kiya hai, aur stock ne April 22, 2026 ko kareeb 11% market cap kho diya.
Motilal Oswal jaise kuch analysts abhi bhi 'BUY' rating de rahe hain, lekin overall sentiment filhaal HCL Tech ke liye cautious lag raha hai. Investors ab dekhenge ki company is situation ko kaise handle karti hai aur kya woh apne deals ko profitable growth mein badal paati hai ya nahi.